Earthquake Loss Estimation And Probabilistic Risk Analysis Of Reinforced Concrete Frame Structures

In history, almost every earthquake led to huge ecomomic loss and human fatality. Therefore, it is of great significance to develop the method of earthquake loss eatimation (ELE). The goals of this stuty are as following: Firstly, the new generation Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE) framework advocated by Pacific Earquake Engineering (PEER) is applied to the estimatin of earthquake loss for reinforced concrete frame structures designed according to current Chinese seismic design code of buildings . Secondly, the estimation of earthquake loss and the assessment of probabilistic seismic risk are provided for earthquake risk mitigation decision-making for decision-makers and earthquake assurance.In this thesis, the study of probability earthquake loss estimation for the reinforced concrete frame structures is developed firstly, including three kinds of loss, namely, earthquake direct economic loss, indirect economic loss and human fatality. The direct economic loss adopts assembly-based loss estimation method based on the PEER performance assessment theory. The fragility functions, collapse fragility analyses, and loss functions are integrated for the results of direct economic loss. The indirect economic loss is determined by means of building downtime. The building downtime is defined as the period of time between the occurrence of a seismic event and the completion of the building repair effort, including the mobilization time and repair-time for damage. The indirect economic loss is equal to the benefit loss during the downtime. The societal criterion for risk acceptance based on life quality index (LQI) is used to estimate the monetary value of a human life, then societal life saving cost (SLSC) is calculated by considering the social economic, entertainment time, life expectancy and life table for insurance in China. Benchmark yield is introduced to take into account the influence of time value in the loss estimation. In this thesis, the expected loss conditioned on ground motion intensity and design reference period are obtained through analysis of 22 RC frame structure models.In the second part of this thesis, the estimated earthquake losses are further extended and applied to probability seismic risk analysis. The project economic evaluation indices including internal rate of return, net present value, dynamic investment pay-back period are introduced to conduct performance indicator of performance-based earthquake engineering. The vulnerability index and robustness analysis are then studied based on the risk analsis results.In the last part of this thesis, based on the earthquake loss data of two cities in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, the predicted seismic loss results are compared with those in practical scenario cases, the earthquake loss estimation methodologies developed in this thesis are verified and proved to be accurate enough.