Safety Evaluation On Ship's Traffic In Port Based On Bayesian Network

With the development of ship's large-scale, high-speed and specialization, the coastal ports become more and more busy. The port channel is increasingly crowded and the deteriorating environment of the port traffic drives to some frequent port traffic accidents, which not only bring significant losses to the ship's life and property, but also make serious impact on port's marine environment. So, it is not conducive to healthy economic development. Heavy costs gave us a lesson from the ship traffic accidents, and we gradually come to understand the port ship's traffic safety with new concepts.We begin by analyzing the factors of the shipping which influence a port traffic safety; this paper will analyze the causes of the current port traffic accidents and the implicit factors of insecurity. By considering and analyzing human factors, environmental factors and then ship factors, which have impact on the port ship traffic safety, it will be established a more practical evaluation index system of the port safety, according to the internal causal relations. It, first, introduces the Bayesian network when evaluating the Port Ship Safety. Then, it determines the Network node and its range. And finally, it establishes the topology of Bayesian network. Simultaneously, combined with a large number of sample data of ports ship traffic accident, it determines the conditional probability distribution of node, and at the end, constructs the port ship traffic safety evaluation model of Bayesian network. This model focus on the qualitative and quantitative, and from the point of Systems Engineering, it evaluates and analyses the harbor traffic safety, using scientific methods and theories. After the simulation with Bayesian network analysis package, GeNIe Software, we will know that it is feasible to evaluate the port ship traffic safety by Bayesian network. In these recent years, the safety of domestic port has been evaluated with that model. The model puts forward reasonable proposals and has a great significance to enhance the management level of the port, promote the port functions, and improve the port safety.