Research On Early-warning Model Of Ash Dam Safety

In recent years,ash dam-break accidents happen occasionally,causing serious loss of people's life and property,ash dam stability has been paid extensive attention.Safety factor method is widely used in ash dam stability analysis currently,and safety factor is used as the only basis for evaluation of ash dam stability,combined with practical project,we can find that various uncertain factors influence ash dam stability,which are all extraneous variables that change with time,so there is significant error between results of certain method and practical project,using reliability theory to analyze the stability of ash dam is more reasonable.At the same time,to meet the need of ash dam monitoring,a new safety early-warning model is put forward,safety factor and reliability index are considered as early-warning index in the model,which is applied in the current ash dam automatic safety monitoring system.The work about the above-mentioned content has been carried out as follows:The reliability theory and the limit equilibrium theory are combined to research on the reliability method of earth slope stability analysis,write the corresponding FORTRAN program,and which is introduced to analyze the stability of ash dam,the static and dynamic stability in the period of steady seepage are analyzed,to evaluate the dam body safe state.At the same time,the influences of variation of mechanical parameter of various dam materials on dam body stability is analyzed.Considering the favorable performance of Radial Basis Function(RBF) in forecast,a RBF forecast model based on ash dam stability is put forward,forecast the safety factor and reliability index when the water level changes,and the corresponding early-warning index is provided.The forecast analysis is realized by using the neural network toolbox in MATLAB.The above research findings are used to analyze the stability of Jinzhushan ash dam,the results show that the variation of mechanical parameter of various dam materials influences the safe state remarkably,it is proved that introducing reliability theory to analyze the stability of ash dam is reasonable.The forecast of the coming safety factor and reliability index by RBF forecast model can reach high accuracy,the model can be used to grasp safe state of dam body and future trend,and it has great engineering application value.Key Words:ash dam;safety factor;reliability index;RBF network;forecast;early-warning...