The Forecast Model Of Karst Spring Discharge Based On SVM Theory And Assessment Of Water Resource Of Shanxi Pingshang

?Pingshang jury diversion works is component part of the six large irrigation works in Shanxi province.It is important part of strategy plan for build water conservancy project in Shanxi province.Pingshang karst water is water souce of Pingshang jury diversion works.This project will supply water to Xinfu,Dingxiang and Yuanping.The higher reliability of this project is needed.The construction of the water source is related to sustainable development of national economy in this area and safety water for million people.Therefor the assessment of karst water resource of Pingshang spring and the research of forecast model of karst spring discharge based on SVM theory are very important in practical living and economy development policy.In this paper based on research results of predecessors the huge data about hydrology,meteorology,geology,geomorphology and hydrogeology are analysed.The karst water system in this area are divided into a certain numbers of subsystems according to the system theory.That is subsystem of Jiaziwan spring,subsystem of Lijiazhuang spring—Pingshangcun spring,subsystem of Shuiquanwan spring—Duanjiazhuang spring,and subsystem of Shuitougou spring.The conceptual hydrogeology model is established.The main effective factors on karst discharge are summarized as rainfall,replenishment by river leakage and human exploitation.The primary theory of SVM is explained briefly.Because of the SVM forecast model has high intelligence,less human participation,with the observation data increasing the model will modify the parameters automatically,so that to approach the real case,it is easier for operation and easier to use for the department of engineering management,so the discharge model of Pingshang karst spring is established by SVM theory.According to effective factors on spring discharge in time oder,the optimum time oder length and the optimum kernel function are decided.And the process of forecast is decided.The base for diversion works management digitizing,forecast of quantity of water feed and optimization of desposition scheme of water resources in this area is established by this research results.Because of the Pingshang spring located at mountain area so the computing method for the water quantity evaluation are carefully considered.The drainage method is main method.And the evaluated results are checked by replenishment method.The evaluated results show that the mean value of the underground karst water during 1956 to 2006 is 152 million m3/a.The theoretical frequency analysis is used to evaluate the useable quantity of underground karst water in this spring area.The evaluated results show that the useable quantity of underground karst water in Pingshang is 7.046 million m3/a per year.The useable factor is 0.465.The current consumed water quantity is 4.3 percent only.So this spring area has great potentialities for exploitage.