Risk Analysis Of Urban Municipal Pipelines Under Earthquake

As lifelines project, urban municipal pipelines play increasingly important role in the country's economic development. However, municipal pipelines also endure great risk, and once destroyed, not only cause difficulties in people's lives, but also will become a serious threat to people's lives and property.Therefore, risk analysis of municipal pipelines is researched in the paper, including analysis of the vulnerability of municipal pipelines, gas pipelines'reliability and earthquake triggered risk, and thus resolve the following issues.Firstly, ground motion, soil liquefaction induced by earthquake, landslides, seismic wave propagation effects as damages to different types of pipelines are researched and possible failure modes are discussed.Secondly, quantitative researches for seismic vulnerability of municipal pipelines focus on the sand liquefaction, fault adverse geological conditions and other typical urban conditions. A detailed discussion of the corresponding seismic response calculation of stress and strain; Based on pipeline damage data caused by historical earthquake, the vulnerability level of pipelines with different diameters are researched, Using Bayes method, seismic data are carried out to construct a municipal pipeline model of seismic vulnerability.In addition, the ground motion and site destruction's structural damages on urban pipelines are researched on the basis of vulnerability analysis. Using Monte Carlo simulation method, reliability of pipelines is calculated. As to municipal pipelines'network reliability under earthquake, Monte Carlo simulation method and ordered binary decision diagram are compared to calculate network reliability.Fourth, individual and social risk of city gas pipeline triggered by earthquake is realized and changes in seismic risk parameters are discussed.Finally, above methods are applied to Huainan City water supply pipelines and gas pipelines, and the outcomes have showed great value.