The Study Of Risk Assessment Methods In Generation Planning

Since 2003, several failures happened successively around the world, bringing huge losses to the society and the economy. A feasible way is to find how to release system stress through system operation and planning to keep the system in a safer operation state. Sufficient reserve capacity and reasonable power network structure are the foundation of safe and stable operation of the power system. Strengthening the coordination of generation and transmission in planning can guarantee the reliability of the system from the first place. Based on the characteristics of the complex network of power system, an index of network equilibrium based on the concept of entropy is proposed in the thesis. The entropy we use here to show network equilibrium consists of two parts: edges'structural importance and edges'functional importance, considering both the topology and the power flow distribution of the transmission network. It is to measure the network equilibrium of the development of power networks. The more equilibrium the load distribution is, the lower the probability of the blackout accidents. A modified IEEE-RTS24 test system and a modified IEEE-118 system are taken as test systems. By using the Monte Carlo simulation, we calculate the entropy of network equilibrium, make comparison between EENS, network utilization and outage frequency. Test results show the effectiveness of the proposed index.