Study On Water Demand Forecasting And Optimized Allocation Of Water Resource In Shanxi Province

Water is the source of the lives, and the material basis of the human beings'survival and the social and economic development. The requirement of water resource's quantity and quality will be more and more higher with the development of population, social and economic. But the available freshwater is limited, additionally the pollution and waste of water resource has sharpened contradiction between water supply and water requirement, which becomes one of the key obstacles of social development in Shanxi province. The study on water demand forecasting and optimized allocation of water resource is an effective way of solving the problem. So the study on optimal allocation of water resource is important and meaningful to the sustainable development of society, economy and ecosystem environment.This paper analyzes the progress of optimized allocation of water resource, collects and tidys up a great deal of data about society, economy and environment, which is associated with optimized allocation of water resource. Oriented by the sustainable development of the water resource as a guider, on the basic of the water demand forecasting, and takes the water combines the optimized allocation of water resource with social economy development, ecological environmental protection, and establishes the multi-objective model of optimized allocation of water resource in Shanxi province.This paper's concrete contents are as follows:1. This paper starts with the background and the research meaning of optimized allocation of water resource, and then puts forward the importance of optimized allocation of water resource in Shanxi.2. Based on the investigation of the general situation about social, economy and water resources, this paper analyzes the situations of water supply and use, and also analyzes the ability of water supply, then discussed the problem during the water resouces' exploitation.3. This paper carries on analysis the factors which can influence the water supply in Shanxi province, and then makes use of the grey connection to choose the main factors. After that, the diverse liner regressions are set up. By the analysis of the method of diverse liner regression and grey model, the water demands in 2010,2015 can be forecasted.4. Oriented by the optimal allocation theory of sustainable development, this paper establishes the multi-objective model of optimized allocation of water resources, which seeks the maximal integrated benefits of economy, society and ecology, then assurances the parameters. A method based on GA is used to solve the multi-objective model. Above this, the results of the optimization model are analyzed and the reasons of water shortage are pointed out, and some measures to water shortage are also given.