The Evolution Of Water Resource Carrying Capacity In Shanxi Province

Water resource shortage is becoming the bottleneck for Shanxi province's development at present. The study of water resource carrying capacity in Shanxi province helps to understand the important role of water resource system which supports the development of social better, realize the coordinated development relationship among economic, social, resource and environment, and make the sustainable development of social comes true.The research object of this paper is water resource carrying capacity in Shanxi province and the main jobs are as follows:1.Constructing the evolution index system of water resource carrying capacity Based on the analysis of the domestic and international research as well as related theoretical, the paper constructed an index system of water resource carrying capacity which contained three hierarchies as the target layer, the system layer and the index layer according to the contents and characteristics of water resources carrying capacity. Among them, the system layer consisted of water resource systems, social systems, economic systems and eco-system.2.After improving the principal component analysis method, this paper evaluated water resource carrying capacity in Shanxi province by using the index system established. In the evaluation of the water resources carrying capacity index system, the paper using tendency to identifying and the average processing to manipulate data for improving the insufficient of principal component analysis method, using an improved principal component analysis method to achieve a dimensionality reduction.When identifying the weights of the principal component, the paper indicated the entropy value method instead of using the variance contribution rate in the principal component analysis, which combined the two methods well and made the result more objective, scientific and simple.Further more, the paper studied the states of water resource carrying capacity in Shanxi province to inflect the trends of water resources carrying capacity during 1991 to 2007.3.Inducting the macro-indicator to predict the water resource carrying capacity in Shanxi provinceThe paper inducted the macro-indicator to find the sizes of population and economic carried by water resource in the future.