Study On Regional Water Resources Carrying Capacity

Water is the material basis for humans and all creatures, and it is the most active and the most influential factors in the ecological environment.The Qingyang City's water environment is fragile, and it's shortage of water belongs to resource shortage,engineering shortage and quality-type shortage, and in the current and future quite a long time, industry and agriculture are still the main parts of the industrial structure, which cost more water, so, Qingyang City's water demand will have greater growth. In the case of increasing pressure, how can the limited water resources do well, it is a major issue to be solved in Qingyang City. The correct evaluation and judgment for water resources carrying capacity of Qingyang city is critical to economic development scale. Therefore, the study of water resources carrying capacity of Qingyang City is a timely and realistic job.Taking extensive literature reference at home and abroad as basis, based on the 2007, and based on the comprehensive analysis of the factors affecting the water resources carrying capacity, the evaluation index system was established, which included water resources, social, economic three subsystems and 11 indicators, and which was suitable for Qingyang City.With the help of computer technology (Microsoft Excel) and statistical analysis software (spss 16.0), the water resources carrying capacity of Qingyang City has been evaluated and has been classified by using the principal component analysis and cluster analysis. The principal component analysis showed that: the principal component composite score was negative in Qingyang City's four counties, which are Qingcheng,Zhengning,Huachi and Heshui, and their water carrying capacity was not optimistic.The cluster analysis showed that: when the aggregate level > 5, the 11 objects were polymerized into three categories. Xifeng,Ningxian and Zhenyuan, which water resources capacity were strong and were polymerized into one category; Qingcheng and Huanxian which carrying capacity of water in the medium level were polymerized into one category; Zhengning,Heshui and Huachi whose water resources carrying capacity were low were polymerized into one category. At the same time, based on widely data, taking the 2007 as the base year, according to the status of regional water resources development and utilization, considering the national economic sectors's water demand, and taking calculation and prediction of the future socio-economic development,water damand and water supply as base, on that basis, Qingyang City's water resources's supply and demand balance was been analyzed and compared.The prediction showed that: along with the increase of population, economic development, oil and coal resources exploitation, the increase speed of water demand of Qingyang City will accelerate, in the year of 2015,2020 and 2030, Qingyang City's water demand respectively are: 360846600m3,489852300m3,683974100m3. Under the current supply capacity, the number of water shortage of Qingyang City respectively are: 85296600m3,214302300m3,408424100m3; under the maximum quantity of water available resources, before the year of 2015, water resource supply is overall enough for Qingyang City, but, in 2020 an in 2030, the number of water shoutage repectively are 35892300m3 and 230014100m3.Obviously, in the future , Qingyang City's water will undersupply, and, the imbalance between supply and demand will become increasingly conspicuous.Constraint factors for Qingyang City's water resources were: the amount of water resources shortage and serious pollution; surface water resource utilization rate was low and over-extraction of groundwater was severe; the river load was large, water loss and soil erosion was serious; water-saving mechanism was not perfect and the phenomenon of waste water was severe. For the low water resources carrying capacity and the serious phenomenon of water shortage problems in Qingyang City, at the end of the article, countermeasures have been put forward, which were about improving the water resources carrying capacity and were helpful for water resources's reasonable exploitation and utilization.