Simulaten Study On Impacts Of Clmate Change On The Potential Yeild Of Wheat

In this paper, CERES-Wheat model, calibrated and validated with historical recorded data of in situ meteorology and crop field experiments, were linked with Regional Climate Model (RCM)-PRECIS to assess the impact of climate change on wheat production in the main planting areas over China.Twenty years (1981-2000) field experiments data over 24 stations were selected to test CERES-Wheat model capacity of simulating yield, growing stage and so on. Also, 3-years (1981-1983) simulated weather data by PRECIS were provided to examine how to link the output of PRECIS and the CERES-Wheat model. The rainfed and irrigated wheat production under A2 climate change scenario, without and with CO₂ fertilization effect, were simulated respectively.It is shown that: in the future under A2 Scenario, Without the CO₂ fertilization effects, the rainfed and irrigated wheat yield would reduce in some areas such as the North-west of China and the near the Yangzi river. But the rainfed and irrigated wheat yield would increase in some areas just like North China plain and South China. Totally, the rainfed and irrigated wheat yield will increase a little all over the China. With the CO₂ fertilization effects, the rainfed and irrigated wheat yield will increase in most areas of China under A2 Scenario. It seems that the rainfed wheat would more beneficial than the irrigated wheat from the Climate Change.