The Study Of The Sustainable Development Of The Grassland Ecological Economy In Tibet

Tibet is one of five major pastoral area of our country, the animal husbandry occupies the important position in national economy. Through making investigations to the grassland ecological environment of a prefecture-level city of 6 areas of Tibet Autonomous Region, regarding artificial activity as the centre, the material flows and flows and takes with energy as the leading factor in the system, regard social economy sustainable development as object, combine the region including environmental conditions of meadow , such as climate , ground form , soil , vegetation ,etc. taking hot condition of water as leading factor and is distributed the law , rely mainly on natural geographical feature, divide Brahmaputra on the meadow of Tibet and visit the grassland ecosystem of river valley middly and upperly, hide the south alpine lake basin grassland ecosystem , hide north plateau fake basin grassland ecosystem ,etc. 6 kinds of main ecosystems, have done its ecological environment and state of development of animal husbandry in detail and described. The division of the ecosystem of this pair of plateaus is favorable to the study on plateau ecosystem benign cycle. The ecology essence that the grassland ecosystem of Tibet worsens is the disequilibrium that the material and energy flow in the system, its basic reason is growth of pastoral area population in Tibet and considerable growth of livestock's amount of livestock on hand, make the material and energy flow, it is out-of-balance to transform the great one, in addition the herdsman is used to using the animal excrement and urine and shrub forest plant to make fuel, grassland mouse and pest malignant to is it cause material and poor efficiency and circulation of wasting etc. of energy and is it cause to flow to breed.Through the survey of state of development of Tibet animal husbandry, have analyzed related relation between Tibet animal husbandry economy and Tibet national economy with related degree. Related degree is 0.6829 through what has been calculated out between the two. This shows that the Tibet animal husbandry occupies higher related degree in Tibet national economy, but its has the tendency to weaken relatedly, namely the position in the whole national economy of animal husbandry's economy is being weakened. Use grey to predict antithesis , GM-DM shine upon long- term forecast model and metabolism GM (1,1) model combine system, the time for economic development of Tibet animal husbandry responded the model of predicting after setting up 2003-2006, have predicted the economic development of 2003-2006 of the Tibet animal husbandry. Predict from the above result can find out , shine upon with GM-DM antithesis long-term forecast model and metabolism GM (1,1) model combine together result produced to predict, error than little (whether most heavy error value 3.88% only), so its predicted value has higher credibility. Analyzed that predicts that it is not difficult for the result to find , the development speed of the economy of Tibet animal husbandry has the tendency to obviously weaken, historical data and predicting that the data indicate that the development of the economy of Tibet animal husbandry accords with S law , this is that the amount of production of herb determines the environmental capacity of the animal husbandry, the environmental capacity of the animal husbandry determines the objective law of the environmental capacity of animal husbandry's economy causes.The sustainable development of the ecological economy in the grassland of Tibet involves natural conditions and social condition. Natural conditions are not mostly controllable, even it is controlled to lack some, its limit of control is very limited. The social condition overwhelming majority can be controlled, direct against the concrete conditions of Tibet, among them the main controllable factor is science and technology, fund, material and idea. Set up the grassland ecology of Tibet and economic sustainable development model according to the controllable factor.According to e...