The Research On Early-warning System Of The Forest Eco-economy In Guangzhou

The forest eco-economic system is a composite system of natural and social attribute that become from the intercoupling of forest ecosystem and forestry economy. In the system, According to the management objectives of the forest ecosystem, the human and society take the dominant position in forestry economy system, Continually regulate the variety and development the forest ecosystem with oneself activity, to satisfy the continually ascending demand of the people.The forest eco-economic early warning is to measure the actuality and future of the forest eco-economic system in a specified region, to predict the space-time scope of abnormality state and the degree of endangerment, to bring up measure for solving the problems, to give out measure to keep away the problem that will soon appear. Studying forest eco-economic system from the angle of forestry sustainable development is the current trend. Forest eco-economic system early warning is conduce to enhancing the anti-risk consciousness of eco-forestry and eco-economy, to promoting sustainable development, to improving both living environment and quality of life. It is the technique guarantee system to realize forestry sustainable development stratagem.Based on the systematic theory and instructed by sustainable development thought, the theory, methods and principle of forest eco-economy early warning was discussed systematically. The early warning system frame that composed by classify, appraisement, forecast and early warning was put forward. The early-warning model was established and the early warning analyses for the Guangzhou forest eco-economical system was carried out.(1) Forest eco-economic system in Guangdong province was classified by the forest eco-economic region classification model which based on kohonen neural network. The eight regions Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Dongguan, Foshan, Zhuhai, Shantou, Zhongshan and Chaozhou belong to the same category. In this type of region, economy is up growth, population density is large, forestry land is lack, forest coverage is low, environmental pressures is large. The primary mission of forest eco-economic development is to increase the quantity of forest, to optimize forest construction, to improve forest quality, to enhance forest eco-function, and to improve regional ecological environment.(2) Founded on the characteristic and primary mission of forest eco-economic system in Guangzhou City, the appraise indexes system and appraise model was built up.