Risk Analysis Of Anoplophora Glabripennis In Western China

Anoplophora glabripennis (Motsch.) is one of the key boring insect and widely distributed.In this paper, the potential geographic distribution, likelihood of introduction and consequences of its introduction in Sinkiang, Tibet and Gansu Natural Secondary Forest of China were forecasted based on its basic bio-ecology characteristic. Then the potential risk synthetical assessment was put forward. The details are as follows:1. According to the biological characteristics and relationship between its development and environment, four key factors were chosen namely, year average temperature (T); the most June and August average temperature (TM); altitude (H) and precipitation (P). Combined climatic data of 639 sites obtained from state weather administration and its main hosts'distribution data, the suitable areas of Anoplophora glabripennis in China were predicted by Mapinfo7.0. The most area of Sinkiang and Lhasa County were suitable for Anoplophora glabripennis.2. By the ecological data of Anoplophora glabripennis, the parameters of CLIMEX software were sufficiently regulated. The northern areas of Sinkiang and Lhasa County were captained within the rampant areas in China predicted by CLIMEX.3. The genetic algorithm ecological model (GARP) was applied to predict the potential distribution areas of Anoplophora glabripennis in Sinkiang, Tibet and Gansu Natural Secondary Forest, based on the known occurring data in these areas.Potential distribution areas of Anoplophora glabripennis predicted by GARP include, the most areas of Tarim Basin and Junggar Basin in Sinkiang, Lhasa, Linzhi and Rikaze regions surrounding the occurring site in Tibet, the Natural Secondary Forest distributed in the southeast of Gansu, Huhehaote city of Inner Mongolia, south of Ningxia, north of Shanxi and north of Hebei.4. The scenario synthetical analysis about the danger to Sinkiang, Tibet and Gansu Natural Secondary Forest by Anoplophora glabripennis were performed based on its introduction assessment and the introduced result assessment. After calculated, the risk value in Sinkiang and Tibet was 2.0776 and 2.0012 respectively, belong to high danger. And in Gansu Natural Secondary Forest the risk value was 1.8450, belong to medium danger.