Study Of Forest And Grasslands Conflagration Law And Early Warning In The North-East Of Inner Mongolia

This paper summarized the spatial and temporal distribution, periodic variation and effect factors based on the statistic analysis of about 20 years forest and grassland conflagration data in the Inner Mongolia. It showed the relations of forest and grasslands conflagration with meteorological conditions, using the correlation analysis. It confined the indexes of begin and end time of spring and autumn fireproof time by using the probability statistics. It was sure of the factors that closely related short-term, mid- term and long- term fire forecast through statistics and test. It showed the indications of forest and grasslands conflagration under the ENSO and sunspot.It analyzed the effects of summer combustible ranks in Inner Mongolia. It confined the main factors of combustible in forest by sampling on-the-spot, such as deadwood layer thick, deadwood layer water content, its temperature, standing deadwood length, bushes length, NDVI, humidity of inside and outside forest etc.Using relative analyses and probability statistics, accomplished fire conflagration programming combining with climate programming and plant varies programming in Inner Mongolia. It classified the grade of easily burn things as amount grade, dry degree grade and easily burn vegetation grade. Forest and grasslands conflagration grade forecast were made form easily burn things grade forecast and fire danger meteorology grade forecast. It builds up the short-term, 5 days drum, mid-term, spring, summer, autumn fire danger grade forecast equation and the model that determined the indexes of beginning and ending time of fireproof time. The conflagration forecast systems have applying in operation, have solved many demands of government.