The Risk Assessment Of Bursaphelenchus Xylophilus (Steiner Et Buhrer) Nickle Invading Huangshan Scenic Area

Pine wilt nematode,Bursaphelenchus xylophilus (Steiner et Buhrer) Nickle) which was first found in Anhui province in 1998 can make serious damage to Pinus spp. At present it spreads quickly and gradually approaches to Huangshan scenic area. A large number of susceptible species such as Pinus taiwanensis Hayata, Pinus massoniana Lamb., Pinus thunbergii Parl. and so on distribute in Mount Huangshan. Once the outbreak of B. xylophilus occurre there, it would make much irreversible damage to natural landscapes.Factors which influence B. xylophilus invade Mount Huangshan were studied in this paper. The influencing process was simulated and the possibility, damage degree were analyzed by @risk software, the relevance between possibility and damage degree were also evaluated, from those risk assessment of B. xylophilus invading Mount Huangshan could be formed. According to the risk assessment results we can discuss the risk management measures, then the risk assessment system was established. The main research results of this paper are as follows: The damage degree of B. xylophilus invading Mount Huangshan was evaluated, 90% of the probability interval was between 1.1473~1.2941, the expected value was 1.228116, the minimum was 1.127012 and the maximum was 1.320529, which belongs to moderate damage, climatic factors have the most significant influence on the results.Speaking generally, B. xylophilus could only invade Mount Huangshan though human carrying spreading but not natural spreading, 90% of the invading probability interval was between 1.35436×10-2~ 4.41109×10-2, the expected value was 2.746933×10-2, the minimum was 1.16938×10-2 and the maximum was 5.01634×10-2, which belongs to high damage, quarantine inspection has the most significant influence on the results. When analyzed the risk of the B. xylophilus invading Mount Huangshan, 90% of the probability interval was between 1.69164×10-2~5.45693×10-2, the expected value was 3.379244×10-2, the minimum was 1.119638×10-2 and the maximum was 6.528641×10-2, 10% of that above was in moderate risk area and 90% was in high risk area. The expected value belongs to high risk. The factors of invading probability have the most significant influence on the results.According to the results of risk assessments, the measure of"prevention first"which could keep B. xylophilus away from Mount Huangshan should be taken. And the risk management measures were divided into three parts: prevention, emergency preplan and reconstruction after the disaster. Because of the characteristic of human carrying spreading is in small scale and with obvious infested wood, measures should be taken in time. Once the disaster occurre, according to the fact of Mount Huangshan emergency preplan which is mainly on"natural restoration"should be started at once.