Risk Analysis And Countermeasure Of Agriculture Drought

The drought is a phenomenon of water shortage that is caused by the imbalance between water supply and water demand. The drought often results in disaster that brings a great loss to the life and produce of people, because of its high frequency, large area and long time. At present, all the countries of the world are suffering from drought disaster, and people attach importance to the research about drought. In our country, the drought disaster is very serious, and drought's area and frequency are higher than flood's. The drought has a great influence on agriculture, causing serious agricultural loss, so it is significant to raising the level of life and improving the development of economy in research area that researching carefully into the drought frequency and drought extent in agriculture, that is risk analysis of agricultural drought.During researching, the first question is that drought extent can be estimated scientifically and reasonably. There are many criteria about agricultural drought now, but they only compartmentalize the ravages of drought into light drought, middle drought and serious drought. These criteria only describe the drought extent qualitatively in fact, cannot describe it quantitatively and continuously, cannot show directly the loss that drought brings to agriculture. This paper thinks that it is the most important about drought description that showing the loss extent that drought brings to agriculture. Based the idea, this paper establishes the quantitative models of drought evaluation for agriculture that are static model and dynamic model respectively. These models can not only describe the drought extent quantitatively but also reflect the agricultural loss caused by drought.Base on the new models, this paper makes research on the probability distribution of drought extent in agriculture, with Monte Carlo method and non-parameters inspection, and get the distribution function and characteristics of agricultural drought. After these, this paper analyses the features of irrigation benefits, and calculates the average benefit of every scheme with simulated method, using Economic Net Present Value. At last, this paper makes multiple objectives decision to irrigation schemes with fuzzy synthetic judge and group decision.Based on theory research, this paper makes risk analysis and decision of agriculture drought in Qu Cun irrigation area, Pu Yang city, He Nan province, using the practical data of the place, and develops an all-purpose Decision Support System for Agriculture Drought, combing theory and practice closely.