Application Of AHP And Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation In Risk Assessment Of Wildlife Emerging Infectious Diseases

With global climate change and human activities on the destruction of the planet's ecosystems, There are more and more emerging infectious diseases of wildlife appearance. The emerging infectious diseases of wildlife is not only make the decrease in the number of wild animals, will also spread to humans it threaten to people's physical and economic property. In order to reduce wildlife damage caused by emerging infectious diseases and better prevention and control of emerging infectious diseases of wildlife. In this paper, an example of the iridovirus of Rana dybowskii, wildlife risk assessment model of emerging infectious diseases be studied.Firstly, investigation in Heilongjiang province. Samples were collected and use the method of PCR to detect the iridovirus of Rana dybowskii.Secondly, On the basis of the study the risk assessment methods of emerging infectious diseases of the emerging infectious diseases of wildlife and compare the advantages and disadvantages of these methods. AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is applied to the construction of the risk assessment model of the emerging infectious diseases of wildlife.Finally, according to collect the data of Iridovirus of Rana Dybowskii,The risk assessment model was applied on the occurrence of in Hailin region on october 2008.Test results show that:the three parts of the detection rate of iridovirus 6.67%,8.8%, 13.3%. Meanwhile, the relationship between the infectious ratio of iridovirus of Rana Dybowskii and ecological factors were studied. The correlation coefficients of the infection ratio with rate altitude, longitude, latitude, temperature, water temperature were 0.040,0.082, 0.054,-0.249,0.099. The results of risk assessment showed that occurrence of iridovirus of Rana Dybowskii in Hailin region is B= [0.445 0.284 0.261] in October 2008.Test results show that there are existing in population of Rana dybowskii in Heilongjiang province. Results showed tha The relationship between Rana iridovirus infection rate and ecological factors no significant correlation among them (p>0.05). Risk assessment results show that:Hailin region is the high risk of Iridovirus of Rana Dybowskii in October 2008.In this paper, the study of risk assessment of emerging infectious diseases of wild life and constituted the risk assessment model of the emerging infectious diseases of wildlife. Through the risk assessment of emerging infectious diseases establishment, risk assessment report of e emerging infectious diseases of wild animals'is provided which prevention and control of emerging infectious diseases. For wild animals prevention and control of emerging infectious diseases provide scientific recommendations.