Coupling Analyze About Corn Production And Water Resources In West Semiarid Area Of Heilongjiang Province

China is the greatest developing country at present, if China can safeguard steady grain production has great influence to economical and social stabilization of China and the whole global. The semiarid zone in the west of Heilongjiang is the important productive basement of marketable grain and stock raising, grain production in this zone has great safeguard to grain security. Water resource is limiting factor to the agricultural and economical development in the semiarid zone. The persistent use of water resource is the important guarantee of agricultural persistent development in the semiarid zone, and the key factor of accelerating the development of ecotypic economy.The semiarid zone in the west of Heilongjiang is lied at the transited belt between the southeast of Daxing'anling and Neijiang plain, it belongs to continental monsoon air in the middle of temperate zone, drought in nines of ten years is the most prominent climate trait, that the crop has deficient water supply in the key period of growth deeply restrains the natural growth of the crops. With the development of irrigation in this years, the situation of drought in some zones were controlled, the grain single production fold increased. According to the forecast, the average single production of irrigated wheat can reach 300kg, the corn can rearh 700kg, the soybean can rearh 200kg, and the earning of farmers will fold increase. It is obvious that agricultural irrigated water has important station to the agricultural production and grain secucity, so deeply advance the safeguard degree of flooding water resource is the premise and basement of advancing the level of grain production, and the demand of advancing the the construct of modern agriculture. So it can provide effective gists to water resource and the persist of agricultural production in the semiarid and has great meanings of safeguarding grain production that researches the developing trend of water resource, estimates the exploitation and use of water resource,bearing capacity of groundwater, forecasts the developing trend of irrigation water and infield resource, researches the potential of semiarid grain increasing production and safeguarding of saving water to grain production in the semiarid zone in the west of Heilongjiang.Combined with the items in Heilongjiang, it was researched by the numbers that the developing situation of water resource and the potential of grain increasing production, the main contents ans the conclusions are as follows:(1) Separately using fuzzy composite estimating method and SPA to estimate the exploitation and use degree of water resource and the situation of bearing capacity of groundwater. The results showed: the degree of exploitation and use of water resource belonged to the original phase. In the phase, the scale of exploitation of water resource was small, the degree is low, the development was slowness, economy was in the phase of wasting water, and the potential of exploitation was great. The bearing capacity of groundwater belonged to I degree, and it had great potential of exploitation and use.(2)Started with the quantity of irrigated persistent water resource and the demanding quantity of irrigated water resource, the safeguarding model of flooding water resource was found. Combined with the data of Year2002 in Gannan, the safeguarding degree of flooding water resource was calucated, and it is known that the safeguarding degree of water resource was I degree in Gannan, flooding water resource can meet the demand of agricultural irrigation, irrigated infield can gain the safeguard of using water. Through the regress model and increasing ratio by degrees of flooding areas, infield resource and irrigated areas were forecasted in 2010 and 2030 in Gannan.(3) The potential of grain increasing production was analyzed from adjusted agricultural planting structure,industry structure,soil resource and water resource and so on. Combined Miami model with Logistic curve model, the potential of grain increasing production was forecasted in Gannan. To year 2010 and 2030, the potential of grain increasing production were 92022t and 347129t in Gannan. Developing saving water agriculture is the effetice approach of releasing water resource, and the imprint approach of grain increasing production. Using separately fuzzy composite estimating method and SPA estimated and choosed the mode of saving water irrigation, and analyzed the potential of grain production on the condition of saving water agriculture.