Application Of GIS In Monitoring Population Dynamics And Forecast Potential Distribution Areas Of Bactrocera Dorsalis(Hendel)

By introducing the method of monitoring population dynamics of oriental fruit fly Bactrocera dorsalis(Hendel), the data of monitoring the oriental fruit fly population dynamics in ecological park of Minhou, Fuzhou and various monitoring points in Fujian Province, show that: the population of oriental fruit flies presented a single peak and its high value was 109 flies per bottle of a week, in the end of October in ecological park of Minhou, Fuzhou. Its population dynamics is bimodal peak in the south of Fjian Rrovince, in late May and early October. The population dynamics of oriental fruit fly was closely related to the temperature by compared of population dynamics in different seasons, and the temperature also affected the population dynamics.The research of oriental fruit fly distribution in Fujian province by using GIS technology shows that: GIS has many advantages of visualization technology than other data analysis software. Oriental fruit fly was found in most parts of Fujian Province. It became hard-hits in south and east of Fujian Province. For example, the amount of fruit flies in Dongshan, Zhangzhou was 3527.33 in a bottle per year. In Minhou, Fuzhou, there were 4392.33 flies in a bottle per year. The population of oriental fruit fly grows quickly year by year in west and north of Fujian Province.On the forecast research for the region suitable of oriental fruit fly, forecasting the suitable region of oriental fruit fly in china by using Suitability of exotic biological Geographic Information System shows that: The suitable area of oriental fruit fly in china is mainly in the Yangtze River and most parts of South China. According to its development threshold temperature (12℃) and effective temperature (346.2℃·d) for generations, this article calculated that the number of generations may occur in 28 counties in Fujian Province is 7~10 generations per year, by using meteorological data. Made the possible generation number visual, and presented in the form of maps using geographic information system software Arcgis. The results showed that: the generation number of oriental fruit fly is increasing from south to north in Fujian Province. It is Non-suitable in most area in the north of Fujian Province. It was forecasted high-incidence area of generation in the south of Fujian Province. The number of oriental fruit fly is small now in the west of Fujian Province, but the temperature has been more suited to its breeding, its number will increase distinctly if there is a large-scale cultivation of host plants.