Utility of a vector geographic information system to model the effects of climate change: An example on New York State's forests

This study identifies the benefits of using a vector geographic information system (GIS) to model the impacts of climate change on New York State's forests. Global climate change threatens the composition and survival of ecosystems by killing the present vegetation and determining which new species may colonize an area. In order to gauge the effects of climate change, models must be formulated now if we are to successfully manage our forests through any impending crisis. GIS are thought to be one part of the modeling solution.;Biomass figures for six species were calculated for plots from New York State, from U.S. Forest Service inventory data. Growing degree days were calculated for 125 weather stations, in and around the state. A Triangular Irregular Network was produced from the weather station data and used to calculate the growing degree days at the location of the plots. This data and the biomass were then used to simulate the effects of increasing temperature on the biomass of the plots. The model was run with and without an increase of 3 degrees Celsius over 50 years.