| Climate change is an indisputable fact,Global climate change will lead to the species' distribution migrate to higher latitudes and high altitude area,Climate change will significantly affect the plant distribution,at the same time,climate change will also affect the quality of the medicinal plants.Models are essential tools to assess the potential response of vegetation to climate change particularly if large spatial and temporal scales are considered.Statistical species distribution models(SDMs)are increasingly used to forecast the potential changes in species distributions under climate change scenarios.With the development of science and technology and the progress of medical detection technology,traditional Chinese medicine in modern medicine market share is more and more big,the medicinal materials demand will also increase.But three are little study about Wild herbs Specific geographic spatial,and Specific geographic spatial information about species is an important part of species conservation.This information is essential for addressing many challenges to species conservation such as those induced by climate change,as well as other ecological or biological factors.It is also important for both the domestication of a wild species.So there are crying needs to find a way to determine the appropriate habitat conditions of wild Chinese herbal medicine,at the same time,on this basis make sure the effects of climate change on the distribution and quality of prediction of medicinal plant.Qinling area with a variety of climate types,which is the boundary for north and south in china.Qinling is one of the main producing area of medicinal materials,and medicinal plant reserves in this area is extremely rich,at the same time Qingling contains a large number of endangered geoherbs.Climate change will be certain to affect its herbs spatial pattern and quality.Schisandra sphenanthera Rehd.et Wils.(S.sphenanthera)is an important Chinese herbal medicine,belonging to the genus Schisandra(family Schisandraceae),With an increase in popularity of this herb in both the domestic and international drug market,S.sphenanthera wild resources are being depleted,and traditional areas where the plant could be found no longer host this species.Currently,it has been incorporated into Chinese Key Protected Wild Medicinal Species List and it is the third class conservation of wild medicinal species,namely,the severely reduced resource and meanwhile the major common species of wild medicinal herbs.in this paper,we building a model which can accurately evaluate the effects of climate change on the distribution and quality of Sinopodophyllum hexandrum,To explore the distribution and.quality of medicinal materials change on this specie under the climate changeIn this study,We collected S.sphenanthera samples at 307 sampling points in 19 sampling sites and extracted schisantherin A by high performance liquid chromatography.We used fuzzy theory to determine the association of schisantherin A content and 19 climatic variables.Then we used the maximum entropy model to determine the weight of each variable.Finally,we estimated the spatial distribution of S.sphenanthera in Qinling Mountains by the weighted average method and GIS spatial analysis.We obtained the suitable range of each variable affecting plant growth and spatial distribution of habitat suitability assessment.Moreover,the model we built is applicable to habitats besides Qinling Mountains by validation.And then using this habitat-suitability assessment model and same climatic data from three general circulation models(GCM)for three different climate change scenarios(SRES-A1B,SRES-A2 and SRES-B1 emission scenarios),we predict the potential geographic distribution of S.sphenanthera in Qinling Mountains for the years 2020-2029,2050-2059 and 2080-2089..Via research,the results are as follows:(1)The membership functions of each habitat suitability evaluation factor of S.sphenanthera were determined;the weight of each variables suggested that temperature annual range(Bio7),precipitation of wettest quarter(Bio16),precipitation of warmest quarter(Bio 18),annual precipitation(Bio 12)and annual mean temperature(Biol)played major roles in the habitat suitability of S.sphenanthera.(2)The results have shown that the proportion of unsuitable,marginally suitable,moderately suitable,and highly suitable habitat for S.sphenanthera in Qinling Mountains was 1.12%,11.76%,43.69%and 43.43%,respectively,which showed that the entire Qinling region is a suitable habitat for the growthof S.sphenanthera.(3)This habitat-suitability assessment model based on GIS and fuzzy logic is applicable to other areas besides Qinling Mountains.(4)model forecast indicate that in the study area,there are different degree changes for the suitable habitat of the S.sphenanthera under the climate change scenarios of SRES-A1B,SRES-A2 and SRES-B1.And the suitable habitat of the S.sphenanthera under would gradual decrease in all scenarios with varying degrees.(5)The high suitable habitat of the S.sphenanthera under the climate change scenarios of SRES-A1B and SRES-A2 was shifting to north and gradually reduced.Higher decline rate of high suitable habitat area in both GCM refer to the SRES-A1B and SRES-A2.The unique features of this study are as follows:(1)This habitat-suitability assessment model based on GIS and fuzzy logic could be used to accurately determine the habitat suitability of S.sphenanthera,quantify the area of suitable habitat and analyze the spatial distribution.It is an effective method for the habitat suitability evaluation of the wild plants which have no specific habitat requirements.(2)Compared with other habitat suitability evaluation model,the model built in this study can determine the appropriate range of each eco-environmental factor.Based on this,the managers and protectors can more efficiently manage and protect the wild plant species.(3)This model for explore the effects of climate change on the distribution and quality of medicinal plant is Successful and effective,it has reference valve for explore the endangered Chinese drugs in different space and time scales of regionalizati.In conclusion,the habitat suitability assessment model based on GIS and fuzzy logic could accurately evaluate the habitat suitability of S.sphenanthera quantify the area of suitable habitat,and accurately evaluate the effects of climate change on the distribution and quality of S.sphenanthera.This information is of value to address the choice of good agricultural practice(GAP)and provide insight for choosing the most suitable cultivation sites,as well as habitat protection zones. |
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