Development And Application Of Imported Risk Assessment Model For Foreign Animal Infectious Diseases

With the rapid development of economic globalization process, international economical trade contact and interpersonal communication increase day by day, so do the introduction risk of infectious diseases. In recent years, more than 30 kinds of new diseases have been found. In addition, some diseases that had been controlled before revived again. It is the major responsibility for researchers and administers to improve early discovery and warning ability and provide prevention timely. It needs a scientific method to identify which diseases probably infect our country. This subject is based on the large information about pandemic and epidemic, using the principle of risk analysis, establish the imported risk assessment system for foreign animal infectious diseases, to assess the risk of infectious diseases in aboard epidemic area import into our country, on the basis of it, by analyzing the epidemical mechanism and characteristic of WNF, assessed the occurrence of WNF in our country in the majority risk factors. The project mainly has the following research:1. To establish the database of epidemic situations of A list animal infectious disease in OIE and analyze the features and situations of infectious diseases.2. To use the many integrate factors to establish the imported risk assessment system for foreign animal infectious diseases, including: the identifications of risk factors; the introduction of risk factors; the content of risk factors; the referential standard of risk-decision; the establishment of risk factors model.3. By analyzing the epidemic situation and asking for experts , the epidemic risk factors were confirmed in China, epidemiological datas were collected, it established the risk database for WNF epidemic situation, and the qualitative and quantitative risk assessment method was built to assess the risk of WNV import into our country.4. On the basis of the WNF of American cases from 2003 to 2007 to be given in a month obtained from CDC of America and the climate data from 1961 to 1990 obtained from Hong Kong Meteorological Center, the climate ability in the WNF of America was analyzed. The result suggested that the temperature arise, so do the people that got the WNF, by a month as the standard, the number of people that got the WNF presented positive correlation with the temperature factors, and the correlation is similar on the scale of state of America.5. In order to set up the predicting model further, so that the need of constructing the risk assessment indicator system of WNF, the climate database was established on the basis of climate data from 1999 to 2004 obtained from China Meteorological Administration to study the influences of weather on the spread of WNF, then the standard of risk assessment was established and the risk maps were drawn with GIS. It drew the subject map and analyzed with the monthly average temperature and relative moisture as the integrate factors, the result showed that in northwest of China, the middle risk areas were owing to the scattered distribution with northwest of Xinjiang exception, and there is a low risk all year. The high risk areas of southeast moved from low latitude to high latitude from January to June, and June has the largest range of risk .The high risk areas moved back from high latitude to low latitude from August to December.6. On the basis of the imported risk assessment system for foreign animal infectious diseases, using integrate assessment factors to estimate the WNF risk of all counties in China. The results shown that WNF has little influence on China, there is relatively high risk in Xinjiang,Heilongjiang,Sichuan and Jiangsu, and then Jilin,Liaoning,Shandong,Zhejiang,Jiangxi,Hunan,Hubei and Guangdong, and there is a relatively low risk in other areas. The risk of WNF transmission is the same trend with the change of temperature, the whole spatiotemporal pattern of China has a higher risk between May and October, the highest risk between July and August, and the lower risk between November and May in next year.It is feasible that the risk assessment brings in the imported risk for foreign animal infectious diseases, it has important ability routine has not. The risk assessment for foreign animal infectious diseases obtains all, has the universal area applicability .How to evaluate the epidemic in the more comprehensive environment, develop more efficient prediction model and integrate it to our evaluate model is our important task.