Climate Risk Evaluation For Agriculture Cropping System In Huaihe River Basin

Based on the eco-fitness theory and fuzzy mathematics method , this paper establishes climate suitability model; and then , under consideration of the climate suitability and its probability distribution, this paper establishes climate risk model and evaluates climate suitability and climate risk of double-crop rice, wheat-rice and wheat-corn cropping systems . Finally, this paper classify the cropping system of Huaihe Watershed by climate suitability and climate risk of wheat-rice, wheat-corn, double cropping rice under the IPCC A2 climate scenario.(1) The climate risk degree is significantly different in different cropping system. Double cropping rice is the highest, and the climate risk degree gradually increases from the central coast to the east and west; wheat-rice cropping system is lower and the distribution gradually increases from east coast to the western mountains; wheat-corn cropping system is the lowest and it shows an increasing trend from the southeast to the northwest coast.(2) The climate risk degree of cropping system in Huaihe Watershed are all increased, but the change of climate risk degree is different in spatial distribution, the eastern shows weak reduction and the Western shows increased trend.(3) Judging from the entire time series, the climate suitability of cropping system are gradually decreasing; which the temperature suitability rises, precipitation and sunshine suitability shows decreasing. Judging from spatial distribution, the climate suitability of double cropping rice intensively decreases across the entire watershed; wheat-rice intensively decreases in west; wheat-corn strongly decreases in the west valley.(4) Under the future climate scenario, the climate suitability of the double cropping rice, wheat-rice and wheat-corn double cropping system are increases at different levels in Huaihe Watershed; and the spatial distribution of climate suitability of double cropping rice and wheat-corn has changed a lot; the climate risk degree of the three kinds of cropping system has clear downward trend, in which the climate risk of double cropping rice drops sharply, and wheat-corn drops in minimum.(5) Compositing the climate suitability and climate risk degree of three cropping system, the results showed that the wheat-corn cropping system is suitable to the northern; the wheat-rice cropping system is suitable to the Southern. Nowadays the double cropping rice shows low climate suitability and high climate risk degree, so it is not suitable to development in most area in Huaihe Watershed. Through studied on the future climate change scenario, it shows that the climate risk of double cropping rice will descend sharply, it can be promote to planting in most area.