Study On Climate Suitability Of Main Cropping System In Southern China Under The Background Of Climate Change

Climatic suitability of crop and cropping system had a pronounced respond on climate change. Based on previous work of climatic suitability model, this study analyzed the spacial-temporal characteristics of climate resources, climatic suitability of different crops and cropping systems through from 1951 to 2010 by using the daily weather and phenological phase data sets from 281 agromeotorological stations in Southern China.The spacial characteristics of climate suitability for early rice, winter wheat, spring maize and summer maize showed latitudinal distrubition. The climate suitability for early rice declined from south to north, instand, that of winter wheat, spring maize and summer maize increased from south to north. The spacial characteristics of late rice and single rice climate suitability showed longtitudinal distrubition, and climate suitability is high in the east, low in the west.Under the background of climate change, the main crop climate suitability presented the decline of different degree from 1951 to 2010. As well as the climate suitability of early rice and winter wheat slight declined, that of late rice, single rice, spring maize and summer maize significant declined from 1981 to 2010. The temperature suitability of different crops were higher than other climate variables. The year of 1980, as the turn point, temperature suitability of single rice and summer maize increased in 1951-1980, but declined in 1981-2010, whilethe temperature suitability of early rice, late rice, winter wheat and spring maize increased in 1981-2010. The precipitation suitability of early rice, late rice, winter wheat and summer maize showed a significant declined from 1981 to 2010, while that of single rice and spring maize increased from 1951 to 2010. The slight suitability of different crops declined from 1951 to 2010.The spacial characteristics of different crop systems climate suitability showed latitudinal distrubition. As well as the climate suitability of double-rice and wheat-rice-rice declined from south to north, which of wheat-rice and wheat-maize increased from south to north. Influenced by terrain, spatial difference of climate suitability of different crop systems was obviously in Yunnan and Sichuan province.Under the background of climate change, the climate suitability of different crop systems presented the decline of different degree from 1951 to 2010. The climate suitability of double-rice, wheat-rice and wheat-maize significant declined in 1981-2010, while the climate suitability of wheat-rice-rice increased in 1981-2010. The temperature suitability of double-rice, wheat-rice and wheat-maize presented the decline of different degree from 1951 to 2010, and the decreasing trend was more significant in 1981-2010, but the temperature suitability of wheat-rice-rice increased from 1951 to 2010. The precipitation suitability of double-rice, wheat-rice and wheat-rice-rice increased in 1951-2010, but precipitation suitability slight declined in 1951-1980 and 1981-2010. The temperature suitability of wheat-maize declined in 1951-2010. The light suitability of different crop systems presented the decline of different degree from 1951 to 2010.