Positive Analysis For The Composition, Change And Efficiency Of Chinese Health Expenditures

From the early years of our nation to the beginning of the reform and opening, Chinese health condition is always praises in the world. However in the recent 20 years, chaos in the public health domain made person felt worried about the economic and society development: "SARS" giving people a profound lesson with eternal bitterness, the schistosome and the tuberculosis resurging...... Specially the nearly 10 years, "the difficultly of seeing a doctor, difficultly of being hospitalized and difficultly of surgery " are not radically changed. The quick growth of personal health care disbursement, made the common people withstand with all these difficulty. In the World Health Organization's arrangement which carries on to the global 191 member nations'health achievements in 2000, China is arranged at 144, and is lower than Egypt (63), Indonesia (92),Iraq (103), India (112), Pakistan (122), Sudan (134), Haiti (138). Why while economic highly grows, the medical health industry actually is so less efficient. Which causes this?Regarding this, this article chooses the total health expense as the object of analysis, and takes the positive analysis as the basic analysis method. On the foundation of total health expense disposition structure and the international comparison, through the positive analysis, this article analyses the influence of health total expense structural changing reason and the function size by quota and compares the government health disbursement and the personal health disbursement efficiency, also points out the current invalid disposition condition and the improvement direction. This article's first chapter is introductory remarks, the first part give this article's goal and the significance. The second part is this chapter's main content: Proposed the health production function and its economical significance, especially its single essential factor marginal utility descending. The rule becomes rationale which this article later will analyze. The third part produced this article to elaborate the object and the noun definition, will facilitate later the analysis, also avoid had the confusion meanings. This article second chapter is our country health total expense disposition structure and comparison research. This chapter by researching rate of GDP to the health total expense the proportion, the personal health disbursement and the government health disbursement respectively to the health total expense the proportion, the government budget health disbursement to financial revenue proportion and health total expense disbursement, use structure carries on the analysis, and has made the international comparison. In the above analysis, this article discovered that, looking from the historical angle of view, the proportion of health total expense occupies GDP, the proportion of personal health disbursement occupies the health total expense increases. The proportion of the government health disbursement occupies the health total expense. The proportion of the government budget health disbursement occupies the financial revenue become reduced. Looking from the national comparison angle of view, the proportion of health total expense occupies GDP gradually and international connects rails achieves the medium level. The proportion of the personal health disbursement occupies the health total expense excessively is to be high. The proportion of government health disbursement occupies the health total expenses. The proportion of government budget health disbursement occupies the financial revenue then excessively is low. In addition, by the health total expense disbursement and the using structure analysis, this article discovers the health disbursement multipurpose to the hospital expense; between the city and countryside, between different area the health resources disposition exist serious unfair. This chapter of elaboration analysis for this article has built the solid fact foundation. Third chapter and the fourth chapter is the key chapter. In the third chapter, this article has first produced a more exhaustive summary. In the positive analysis part, under the data steady premise, this article discovered individual health disbursement, the government budget health disbursement, GDP and the health product price has the long-term Cointegration Analysis relations. On this foundation, this article using the VAR model, finds that the essential factors has the secular cointegration relations, pointed out the reason of present personal health disbursement remarkable increasing is the government budget health disbursement swift and violent reduction, next is average per person GDP increasing and the living condition improvement which brings about the health demand increased, but the price factor is not obvious. In the fourth chapter, this article using the ridge regression analysis method, compares the government health disbursement and the personal health disbursement in the macroscopic angle regarding the populace health standard, and finds the government health disbursement more effective, in other words, the government budget health disbursement is too few. This article finally is the conclusion. By analyzing through the above synthesis, it points out the current health resources invalid disposition condition and reason, and indicates the direction which further improves. The difference of this research comparing with others is that: in the tradition the single equation linear regression which mainly analyses the total health expense growth reason, neglected an essential factor mutually to affect between each other, and was biased unavoidably. But this article has used the VAR model regarding various factors relations, and has analyzed its function size and obtained some unexpected results. Before this also some literature have analyzed the government health disbursement and the personal health disbursement application different domain and the function, but certainly does not have the quantitative analysis to compare them under macroscopic angle of view the present stage regarding all the people health influence , but this has the vital role about the future health resources disposition direction. In addition, each part of this article though is independent, but closely relates and mutually is backing. It completely and comprehensive explained the health resources disposition related question, and has made up formerly the sole angle of view. The positive analysis also has provided the powerful fact evidence struggling for the existing viewpoint. Hoping these contribute a substantive function for our country health medical service reform.