Researches On Lottery Paradox From The Point Of Justification

The emergence of lottery paradox has an important theoretical and practical origins. Studied from the aspects of theory and practice, we had to resort to the principle of high probability for the defense of induction. High probability principle could be justified: on one hand, the problem of induction (specifically, the issue is the question of confirming on induction), problem was confronted with the difficulty that universal propositions could not be fully confirmed; on the other hand, events concerned with future are often uncertain and with probability, which made the acceptance of the principle of high probability reasonable. Thus, there were a group of scholars in the field of inductive logic and philosophy of science who advocated the principle of high probability. In their view, as long as probability of a theory was higher than a certain critical value, then it was reasonable, and we should reasonably accept it; From the epistemological point of view, we should accept it into our knowledge system. But history has shown that the principle of high probability that we had to accept made us in dilemma. In 1961, Kyburg proposed the lottery paradox, which made us realize that we could not accept the proposition of high probability as before. We had to give a reasonable and convincing explanation to what rules we could accept and what rules we could reject, and undoubtedly such a requirement was reasonable. Did it showed that the principle of the high probability we originally accepted was unreasonable? Was it reasonable or not that the logical connective "conjunction" was applied to a probability proposition in the lottery paradox? These questions were related to the important issue whether certain basic principles of philosophy and logic were reasonable or not. In this paper a conclusion is just made by analyzing the lottery paradox that Foundherentism is a good epistemological justification theory that could solve those problems.Based on the clue of what the problem is, why there is a problem and how to solve the problem, this paper tries to do something to promote the development of the theory. This paper introduces the problem of lottery paradox firstly, and argues that it is a strict logical paradox. Then it introduces a rather successful epistemological theory for solving the paradoxes, that is Foundherentism which is based on clarification of'justification'. And in the third chapter this paper uses the new theory to solve the lottery paradox; The theory can be put into the program of coherence theory, and also it can be argued as a more accurate program than the previous programs; it can be given a full philosophical statement as well, which shows its genuine advantage.