The Study On Lottery Paradox

Lottery Paradox raised by Henry Kyburg is a significant inductive paradox.It has caused attention and debates from various fields including logic,philosophy of science,theory of knowledge,etc.,because of its query for the principles of high-probability acceptance.Using the research levels of inductive paradox for reference,this dissertation is mainly aimed to explain and analyze the formalization,connotation,and solution of Lottery Paradox.The existing research at home and abroad of Lottery Paradox is about the solution or the philosophical description.I consider it necessary to highlight the meaning and value of the paradox,which is,indeed,the driving force for us to dig deeper on this problem.The explanation and analysis of Lottery Paradox is intended to arouse reflection and exploration of 'Belief Acceptance'.Based on the constitution and typical solutions of Lottery Paradox,I try to re-ponder over the nature of paradox,compare the comprehension of knowledge,belief and allegation,in order to define Lottery Paradox and find the proper research perspective and path.The typical solutions are centered in the accepting principles of reasonable belief,while this paper mainly focuses on the rationality of belief inconsistence.Whether we could accept the inconsistent believes is discussed,according to the reasonableness of paradox belief basis.From related document,I find the similarity and complementarity between Preface Paradox and Lottery Paradox.The argument between Crowe Dale and John Junior has been popular in recent years.Crowe Dale raised Permissibility Solution,while John Junior analyzed and argued about its irrationality.Their argument on some controversial point can help us better identify reach an agreement certain problems.In conclusion,I try to explain the paradox by concentrating on the belief,and to discuss how we could deal with the inconsistent believes.From the query about the principles of high-probability belief acceptance,to the relationship between probability and belief,I'm thinking if there's a more accurate way to measure believes.By talking about the Concluding nature of Lottery Paradox and its similarities and difference with the problem of Hume,I emphasize the connection and difference between knowledge and belief,and discuss whether the universal proposition from conclusion is accurate.