The Study On The Entrepreneurial Opportunity Identification Affected By Cognitive Bias

Cognitive bias refers to some simplified cognitive systems that individuals take when making decisions in a barely rational background,which may appear in forms of decisive regulars,cognitive process or subjective intuition.The research on cognitive bias has made fruitful accomplishments in economic field while it mainly focuses on decision-makers or investors.Cognitive bias of entrepreneurs becomes an important branch.On one hand,it concentrates on exploring and demonstrating the differences between entrepreneurs and other groups,on the other hand,the effect of cognitive bias on the process of opportunity identification attracts many researchers. This article also develops as this way.The measurement of the degree of cognitive bias through the means of xx questionnaire while other variances measured by the analysis of a case.We also assume a cognitive model that cognitive bias affect risk perception while risk perception also affects opportunity identification,meanwhile,the risk perception takes as a mediating variance and profit expectation takes as a moderating variance.Firstly,this article explored and demonstrated the differences of cognitive bias between entrepreneurs and university students,the results suggest that two groups are significantly different in overconfidence and status quo except for endowment effect. Secondly,we analysis the relations between cognitive bias and risk perception as well as the mediating effect of risk perception.Consistent with our assumptions,some bias indeed has an effect on risk perception which fully mediates the effect of endowment on opportunity identification and partially mediates the effect of representativeness on opportunity identification.Lastly,there is an assumption that profit expectation takes as a moderating variance,the statistic result suggests it's not significant while very close to significant level,which need a further study to make a valid conclusion.All these results deepen our understanding of the effect of bias,psychological perception and profit expectation on the process of entrepreneurial cognition. Theoretically,this dissertation is a supplement in the research of entrepreneurial field while it can also guide entrepreneurs or those want to be to make less mistakes and increase the possibility of identifying real opportunity.