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The Research Of The Model Of Warning For Corporate Financial Distress

Posted on:2003-06-24Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:Q GuoFull Text:PDF
GTID:2156360065955120Subject:Management Science and Engineering
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Enterprises are threatened by distress in ardent competition now. If enterprise can't deal with the distress, enterprise will get into a hobble. At the times that the relation among the enterprises is more and more tight, the distress of one corporation will bring distress to other corporations which are relevant with it. So the chain reaction and vicious circle will happen. At the same time the macro-economic environment will be destroyed when most corporations can't get out of trouble. And the depravation of the macro-economic environment will strengthen the enterprises' distress. But enterprises' condition will get better if the sign of the distress can be found early. The corporations can take some action to control the distress. The ability of resisting risk will improve. So recognizing risk is important to the development of enterprise or the improvement of macro-economic environment. The article tries to do some work in the field.The financial condition of corporation is the integrate reflection of the corporation's management. At the same time the financial condition decide if the corporation can keep running. So the research of the warning for corporate financial distress is a key to the management of corporation. The article emphasizes on the point. I hope it will be helpful to enhancing the corporation's management level.The article is the applicant of the warning theory about enterprise. It adopts some credit analyzing methods. The traditional credit-analyzing methods are applied by the investors. These were used to check the ability of pay-off of corporation. The result reflects the evaluation by society of the corporation. In the article I change them to applying in the self-evaluation of corporation. The corporations can check their own financial condition and understand the investor's standard. So they can take action to enhance financing ability.Quantitative analysis was emphasized in the artical because the qualitative analysis about risk evaluation is more than quantitative analysis. The major methods are discriminant analysis and neural networks.Fifty two corporations were selected on the stock market as samples. Then I analyze their financial data. First I construct a one-variable warning model.Second I construct a discriminant analysis model. Because liner models have some defects, I construct perceptron model and BP model on base of neural networks theory. The paper shows the respective fields of the models by analysis and contrast of effect and reliance. As the financial condition of the corporation is determined by its managing condition., I construct the model including financial variables and other variables. The model combines quantitative method and qualitative method. And it combines neural networks theory and fussy theory.At last a model based on genetic programming is presented. As a kind of new method, it has its own advantage.
Keywords/Search Tags:financial distress, warning model, multi-variable discriminant analysis, neural networks
PDF Full Text Request
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