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The Structuring Of Listed Companies' Financial Crisis Warning System Which The Information Revising Factors Are Introduced Into

Posted on:2005-05-07Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:J LiFull Text:PDF
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The financial crisis is a world question. Since the sixties, the researchers of a lot of countries of U.S.A. and Europe have already begun to carry on financial crisis early warning research. Domestic research has just started, and the great majority researches are that the qualitative analysis is heavy in quantitative analysis. The research purpose of this paper is that to set up a set of science appraises the system of the financial situation of listed companies, and promulgate to the department supervising with wide investment person, which listed companies have went into the warming districts of financial crisis, in other words investor should vigilance high to endanger trap district.The main contents of studying in this paper have two. One is adjust the financial target that affect by the profit to control, decrease the effect of asymmetry of accounting information to setting up model, thereby establish one suit of effectual dynamic financial crisis warming model, moreover can be based on the establishing financial crisis warning system, utilize the now available openly data, and forecast the companies that will turn up financial crisis in next year, and supply the foundation for invest decision of investors. Other is that this research establish the financial crsis warning system by separately adopted logical regression discriminate analysis technique and the neural net (ANN) , and contrast the forecasting effects of every model.This paper divides five parts altogether. The first part introduced the research background and the research significance of the financial crisis warning model of listed company, and study the current situation both at home and abroad, and point out the place of innovation of studying in this paper. The second part explained mainly how the financial crisis was defined, and analyzed that causes the factor of the financial crisis. The third part explained the profit handled behavior of listed company to the influence of setting up financial crisis warning model. The fourth and fifth parts used empirical research to respectively set up the financial crisis warning model of listed companies and the financial crisis worsen warning model of listed companies.The result of empirical research shows: (1) Consider the profit handled influence, the forecast capability that set up models after adjust the financial targets is better than the models of that establish to not consider profit handled influence. (2) We used two kinds of technological means to set up the model. Through the empirical research, the result showed that these two kinds of method prediction results both with better prediction result, BP model among them should be superior to the prediction result of Logistic model.
Keywords/Search Tags:Financial Distress, Warning Model, Logistic Analysis, Neural Networks
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