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Early Warning Of China's Listed Companies' Financial Model Based On Univariate Analysis

Posted on:2004-12-18Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:P WuFull Text:PDF
GTID:2206360092985941Subject:Industrial Economics
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With the deepening of economic reform in China , more and more companies will have to be faced with fierce competition . If a firm operate unsuccessfully , it will be hard to avoid going bankruptcy .Because more and more policies about security supervision and management will be set down by CSRC. Many listed companies will have to become "special treatment" or "particular treatment"companies. Even some of these companies will be eliminate from the list of stock exchange . Therefore , in many cases , finding ways to try to identify failing companies as early as possible is clearly a matter of considerable interest to manager,investors , creditors and auditors . One way to the aim is to predict financial distress of companies.This paper discusses how to establish the models for assessing the distress of corporations based unit variable.In the paper, we chose the datum of Chinese listed companies for positive analysis. These datum were classified and studied by industry and time .We discussed seven variables separately. Then we established determinant models. In the end,we drew these conclusions by these models:1. Most of financial ratios can predict the distress exactly,2.The predicting effects variety with industry and time.3.Return of equity and growth rate of assets are most sensitive to varity financial position. The predicting effects of ratios of cash flows are not as well as the effects we expected at first.
Keywords/Search Tags:prediction of financial distress, prediction model, one variable analysis
PDF Full Text Request
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