An Analysis And Forecast Of Guangxi's Macro-Economic Prospects

Economic fluctuation is a normal phenomenon of economic development. It is always presented a circulation movement that economy shifts from booming to recession and then from recession to booming continually. Normally, the process is called the economic prosperity circulation .It is impossible to let the economic situation stay in the period of booming forever. However, we hope to know precedently the trend of fluctuation of macro-economy so as to put forward the related policies, properly and correctly, to guide economy developing continually and healthily.By using the statistical data from January of 1994 to December of 2002, with the help of the theories of econometric statistics % time serial analysis^ forecast and police-making , this paper build a monthly regressive model, a monthly policy interference model and a quarterly policy interference model .And by these models, I make a simulation and comparative analysis about the active policy of the government budget, investment policy and foreign trade policy of Guangxi. And by using the quarterly policy interference model, I furthermore make a comprehensive analysis of the economic situation of Guangxi on the basis of the forecast values of the investment, consumption, inhabitant incomes,foreign trade, government budget and finance. Basing these researches, I formed an idea that the economy of Guangxi is still an economy under the interference of government policies and the macro-control polices of the government will occupy an important position in leading the direction of Guangxi economy. In view of the severe problems occurring during the development of the economy, the paper puts forward several countermeasures of policy, including improving the income of rural inhabitant and strengthening the construction of towns and cities, and pushing forward the industrialization construction, etc.The process to build the monthly model is very complex. To solve the problem, 1 develop a computer software. This work fills a blank in the area of applying software of economic prosperity and provides a good research platform for the researchers in the area of the macro-economic prosperity researches.