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Study On Predication Model Of Macro-Economy Development In The Inner Mongolia Taipusi Banner

Posted on:2005-09-20Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:J J ZouFull Text:PDF
GTID:1116360122988313Subject:Agricultural Soil and Water Engineering
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
From the sustainable development, this paper makes out the economic development, industrial structure, optimal distribution of agricultural resource, population etc. in Taipusiqi Banner on the application of the development planning theory. The planning results are the important base of midterm and long-run planning, and town planning for Taipusi Banner. This paper makes up of three portions.The first portion of this paper is the population planning. According to the Taipusi Banner guiding ideology of the population planning, the population size, population structure and manpower at each planning year were made by the population dynamic prediction model on the base of the natural resources, environmental condition, and historical background of Taipusi banner.The second portion of this paper is the development prediction of Taipusi banner macro-economy. First of all, according to the developing strategies of Xilinguole Prefecture, the main structures of the economic development were determined by the macro-economy model, and the development of the three economic departments has been planned. The second, the optimum growth rates of the economy and wages were forecasted by non-linear dynamic input-output model at the planning year.The third portion of this paper is the agricultural development patterns and the scientific allocation of the agriculture resource. First of all, the optimal agriculture development pattern was selected by the AGA-AHP (analysis of genetic algorithm. analytic hierarchy process). The optimal pattern is the important baser of the agricultural resource utilization in the near future. The second, the optimal allocation schemes of the water and soil resource were provided in the research area.
Keywords/Search Tags:development planning theory, population dynamic prediction model, macro-economy prediction model, non-linear dynamic input-output model, agricultural development pattern, multi-objectives programming model, sustainable development.
PDF Full Text Request
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