The Positive Analysis Of The Financial Early-warning On The Quoted Companies Of China

In modern society, the enterprises are facing various risks, including financial risks. The defence and control to the financial risks of the enterprises, is one of the hottest topics in the financial theory research and the financial practice research. The early-warning on the financial crisis of the enterprises is the important component of the risks management of the enterprises, so the establishment of a valid financial early-warning system is very important to the management of the modern enterprises.The thesis, using the positive analysis method and the statistical analysis method, selects some samples in quoted companies of our country and some analysis index to establish the linear discriminant model and the logistic regression model for the quoted companies of our country. The establishment of two models is based on the financial data of the samples. The analysis result indicates that the logistic regression model has the higher accuracy than the linear discriminant model. At last, the thesis chooses some quoted companies as testing samples to the accuracy of the logistic regression model. The test result of the logistic regression model is satisfactory. The final research result indicates that the logistic regression model has the high accuracy, and it can be applied to forecast the financial crisis of the enterprises of our country.