The Economic Modeling And Positive Analysis On Energy Demand Of China

It is well known that energy is the basic matter and dynamical resource for the development of economy and society. With constant expanding of the economic scale of China, it gets more and more concern whether the future energy industry can support the speeding development of China's economy. Therefore, a well-designed strategy of energy development is a causal factor to the healthy, stable and sustainable development of economy. However, the modeling and analysis of energy demand is one of the fundamental elements of energy exploitation strategy planning and layout.The approaches, which have been applied in the modeling and analysis of energy demand at up to now, are based on the traditional modeling technology. There is an important assumption that time series data is stationary in the traditional modeling technology. In fact, energy time series is unstationary and non-linear. The unstationarity and non-linearity in the energy time series makes the traditional modeling method of energy demand challenged. Taking the unstationarity and non-linearity in the energy time series into consideration, the author models and analyzes China's energy demand using methodology of cointegration, error correction and the neural network, putting forward two models of energy demand that are reasonable, efficacious and can be used for prediction. Moreover, based on them, we make a demonstration study on the influential factors of energy demand and then make a conclusion that there is a quantifiable relationship in the energy demand and its influential factors. Furthermore, to testify the efficacy of cointegration model of energy demand, we applied it on the electric power demand. Secondly, we compare the two models (cointegration model and neural network one) and conclude that linear model (cointegration model) has vivid economic explaining power but lower forecasting precision while non-linear model (neural network model) has higher forecasting precision but unconspicuous economic explaining performance. Therefore, they can be complementary in application. Thirdly, we forecast the future energy demand in China using the two models and then conclude that there is consistency in the forecasting result of two models. Finally, we put forward some proposals about the development of energy in China...