Empirical Study Of Scale Of National Debt Of China

Since the recovery of national debt in 1981, it has been playing an important role in fund raise, fiscal balance, national important construction and all kinds of reformations. At the same time, the scale national debt expanded by and by. Especially in 1998, our country expanded the deficit positively, and stimulated the economic development by issuance of national debt bonds. Therefore, the scale of national debt expanded rapidly, and it attracted notices of the society.The proper scale of national debt is the internal demand of efficient macro-controlling and healthy development of national economy. Because of too small scale, the national debt can not realize the efficiency in solving fiscal difficulties, affecting the ratio of investment and consumption. To the contrary, too large scale of national debt will result in passive consequence.This paper regards the efficiency of national debt as starting-point and center on the scale of national debt. And the paper studies empirically the two factors, such as the ability of settling debt (include fiscal one and economic one) and the using efficiency. And the paper draws some conclusions. On the basis of this, this paper brings forward some suggestions.This paper can be divided into 5 parts as follows:The first part is introduction of the whole paper, inclusive of bringing forward some questions, the targets and means of the research.The second part is on the theory of the scale of national debt and the development of it. This part reviews the theory of scale of national debt of the western countries of three different stages and the history of development of the scale of national debt. And this part points out the factors on the proper scale of national debt.The third part is analysis of the scale of national debt from the ability of settling debt. At first, this part points out that national debt is a indebted relationship. The scale will be affected by the government finance. Therefore, the scale can be decided by the fiscal and economic ability of settling debt. Then this paper empirically studies the 6 indexes. And this part draws some conclusion: the scale of national debt is in the midst of the paradox between economic ability and fiscal one. The main questions are the low level of fiscal fund.The forth part is analysis of the scale from the using efficiency. This part studies the five aspects, such as the marginal cost and return, the ability of settling debt, the3efficiency of macro-economy, sub dual of passive efficiency and so on. Then this paper draws a conclusion that we should control the scale of national debt with the efficiency. Finally, this paper studies the using efficiency of national debt with above indexes, and we can draw a conclusion that the using efficiency of national debt intends to decline. There are some reasons for that as follow: the reasonable investment of fund of national debt, imperfect related laws and backward system of investment.The fifth part is the suggestions of policy of national debt. This part puts forward some suggestions of how to keep proper scale of national debt as follows: firstly, the using efficiency of the fund of national debt should be enhanced. And that can be realized from the four aspects such as improvement of means of budget, issuance of local government bonds, building of the bonds market and enforce the management of investment of fund of national debt. Secondly, the taxation system should be improved and reformed. And the management should be enforced. Thirdly, the structure of national debt should be optimized in order for demands of different preferences. And the cost of issuance of national debt should be reduced and the fiscal burden should be decreased. Fourthly, the related laws system of supervision of national debt should be built. The laws of national debt should be built. Finally, the system of refunding should be built.