Study On The Moderate Scale Of National Debt In China

At first, the paper interviews the theory about national debt scale both in west country and in China, then analyzes the characters of the development of national debt and the current situation of national debt, moreover, the author points out the problems about current development of national debt. Second, this paper analyzes factors influencing the scale of national debt in the perspective of national debt policy affecting economy. Those factors are:(lRefunding capability of total national economy (2)national debt' self-accumulation (3)effective interest rate (4)deficit. Third, the paper explains deeply and gives qualitatively conclusion from three parts: the refunding capability of government, refunding capability of resident, and refunding capability of economy. Fourth, the author provides a thorough moderate national debt analysis with debt-deficit model including such factors as the national debt' self-accumulation ;effective interest rate; and deficit. According to the theory model and international experiences, the author points out that moderate upper limitation of deficit-rate is 3%-3.5% and that of debt-rate is:50%?0%, Besides, the author forecasts the future moderate national debt issuance and points out that the upper limitation of national debt issuance should be RMB698.000 million in 2005 and RMB865,000 million in 2010 Finally, the author provides suggestion about deficit and national debt policy.