| With the expansion of the national debts scale in our country, the reasonable limit of the national debts' quantity problem become one of the crucial points in bond study. How to evaluate the influence of bonds issuing for the finance and monetary policy. What are the most important factors that affect the size of debts issuing ? These problems arouse attentions in the theoretical field, but there aren't conclusions any thus far.After analyzing the burden of national debts and finding the factors that affect the reasonable limit of the national debts' quantity ,this dissertation build quantity models for it ,and make predictions for reference.The dissertation is divided into six chapters .Chapter 1,Summary ,which explain the importance of the topic and suggest the system , method , and main contents of this dissertation .Chapter 2:The research of the theory of national debt and the practice of the debts issuing in China, in this part, we sum up the theory of national debts and the method of researching moderate scale in China and other countries .Chapter 3:The analysis of burden of national debts in China ,which analyze the debts' burden by the rate of debts' burden and the rate of repayment of debts and the degree dependence of debts and so on .Chapter 4:Influence factor study of the reasonable limit of national debts' quantity ,in this chapter we get the factors that mostly affect the scale .Using the actual datum and modern econometric and statistical analysis method , we conclude that the repayment of capital and interest and the finance deficit are the most important factors. Chapter 5:The building of reasonable limit of national debts' quantity of the debts' burden model and demonstration .In this part, on the basis of the Domar model ,we build three models that accord with the situation of China and make predictions for reference . Chapter 6: conclusion and policy advice ,which make a conclusion for the paper and give some policy advice.
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