Study On Chinese Residents' Propensity To Consume And Macro-Consumption Polices

Consumption theory is the footstone of Keynes macro-economics, and it is also one of the important contents that modern macro-economics analysis. Resident consumption leads a fundamental role on two aspects for the development of economy, for one thing, consumption forms GDP directly, for another, consumption activates investment and thus drives economy rising. However, the effect that expansionary fiscal investment stimulates economy rising depends on invest multiplier, and multiplier has a direct relationship with residents consumption. During the 1990s, resident consumption in our country has an obvious downtrend. And in 1995 and 1998, both of the average propensity to consume (APC) and the marginal propensity to consume (MFC) of residents in towns and countryside reached 1980s lowest point. Propensity to consume begins to deviate from the effect of investment variation and shows a trait of independency. For example, consumption demand didn't expand in response to investment expansion and shows a different trend in 1992 and 1993.The decline of resident MFC mostly counteracts some drawing functions that investment expansion exerts on economy rising. If we can take effective efforts to deter MPC downtrend or make MFC rise, multiplier will be unproved and the same amount of investment may show a stronger effect. We begin with the trait of resident MPC (APC) in towns and countryside, looking for resolve scheme to improve MPC (APC) and provide some positive suggestions for the establishment of macro consumption policy by analyzing some vital points, such as consumption psychology, resident income, consumption expectation, consumption policy and other objective factors that affect resident consumption.Residents' propensity to consume takes on a distinctive character due to the effect of consumption propensity, income and macro-policies etc. This happens not only between towns and countryside, but also between rich people and poor people both in towns and villages. To predict residents' consumption level accurately has an importance on promoting the development of consumption market, improving consumption level and increasing income, and so on. The consumption function putting forward by Keynes is the most common method so far. By virtue of econometrics and Keynes model, we calculate residents' consumption function on the bases of classifying people to different groups according to income, thus try to find some laws so as to help establish provocative polices.By regarding Keynes consumption theory as its masterstroke and residents' propensity to consume as its main research content, and also by applying econometrics method, the whole dissertation does some positive analyses and draws valuable conclusions.