Study On Real Estate Bubbles

There has been a more and more large body of academic and industry research on real estate bubbles in recent years including the warning from the central government. Report of China's Industry Boom Analysis said that the year of 2002 could be the turning point for Chinese real estate industry, and pointed that the real estate industry which had been prosper for five years would enter the stage of adjustment of the market. The true real estate bubbles has come forth. "Policy Oriented" presented by Construction Ministry requires that the inspection of land for construction and the project should be strengthened, and should strictly control the approvals of luxury housing construction and encourage the building of economic housing. Last year, the Central Bank inspected the business of real estate finance of commercial banks and emphasized that we should pay attention to the risk involved in the rising of real estate price and increasing of vacancy. The commercial banks should strengthen the credit loan management and look out the real estate bubbles when supporting the development of real estate industry. The real estate industry has been one of the hottest topics. The evidence of real estate boom seems to be more and more distinct.Thus, on the basis of collection of the information on the real estate bubbles from the home and abroad, this dissertation analyses the reasons causing real estate bubbles and presents the effects of real estate bubbles on the economy. This dissertation uses the theory of asset evaluation and introduces the "income reversion method" and "market modification method" to evaluate the real estate bubbles. Because of the disserve and its breaking out suddenly, the government's cost of taking measures to control the bubbles is very great. So, on the basis of our understanding the reasons of the bubbles, we should keep away the real estate bubbles so as to alleviate its bad effects. As the emphases of this dissertation, the chapter 5 provides the study on the warning system of real estate bubbles. And the chapter 6 presents the positive study on the real estate bubbles in Chongqing on the basis of Chongqing's real estate market datas.