The Application Of Input-output Method For The Research On The Discrimination Of Bubbles Phenomenon In Real-estate In Shannxi Province

People realize step by step that the real-estate has a great value in national economy with its rapid development.The government now manages to control the state of the development of real-estate and trys to improve national economy and the citizen's living condition.At the same time,the government has take the real-estate which focus on the house building as a new point to assist in further development of national economy.However ,the people throughout the country have focus on the bubbles phenomenon in real-estate since the second part of 2002.Furthermore,some articles allege that the phenomenon exists not only in the developing province,but also in some uncultured west regions.Real-estate has a powerful produce solicitation coefficient and always needs a great amount of operation financing which make it have a profound influence to the development of national economy.lt is need of studying on weather there is bubbles phenomenon in real-estate or the phenomenon just exist in some particular places,which will be helpful for the government to establish resonal policities.The paper focus on the analysis of the product price of real-estate in Shannxi with input-output method to insure the proportationate development of national economy at the meanwhile,it also draw a conclusion that the real-estate in shannxi has a reasonal overall product price by establishing the nonlinear static input-output model and evaluating the statistic of shannxi form 1997 to 2001.Furthermore,the paper makes a profound research on "Income Price of Housing Ratio"and"Commercial Building Leisure Ratio"and brings forward some question or the appearance of bubbles phenomenon in real-estate.The conclusion is that there is no bubbles phenomenon in real-estate market in Shannxi Province.Moreover,the paper out stretched its model :it has accounted the produce solicitation coefficient of ten departments in Shannxi and established the nonlinear dynamic input-output model of Shannxi ten departments and the 2010 requirement forecast model for modenized hous-ing industry in Shannxi Province.