Research On Measure, Precaution, Prevention And Cure Of Chinese Real Estate Bubbles

The bubbles is an economic unbalanced phenomenon, it can be defined that a certain asset 's price moves upwards non-smoothly relative to its' theoretic price which decided by economic foundation. And the mathematic expectation of this moving can be the survey of bubbles. The real estate bubbles means that the real estate price driven by speculation moves upwards non-smoothly, and this moving deviates from theoretic price which decided by economic foundation. The price of ground and building is too high to be sold in the market. Though its appears costly, in fact it's an illusive flourish.Market economy is the premise of speculation. Economic monetization, economic growth, the appearing in a large amount of financial derivative, all of these have offered financial support for extensive real estate foam. Financial liberalization and Informationization have promoted the growth of price fluctuating and price foam through accelerating capital circulation. That the economic government is out-of-balance has offered institutional support for forming of the foam.People's unrational behavior is the basic prerequisite in the mechanism of foam expansion of the real estate. Exactly because of people's unrational anticipation, so many speculation behavior and conform behavior appeared in the market. In the Chinese market, for the boundaries of the government and market are not clear, the formation mechanism of the real estate bubbles has mixed too much government's behavior. As soon as the real estate bubbles appears in the market, it will strengthen the intensity of the foam itself through a series of positive feedback mechanism. Particularly, one hand, the more project profit of the real estate increase, the more fund pours into the real estate market, and so the more the real estate price increases. The other hand, investors apply to banks for the mortgage with expanding assets and then put the loan into the real estate market again. The circulating fund in the economic system inflates further. At last, the higher real estate price, the deeper related degree of the relationship between the real estate and other departments of national economy. And the foremost single real estate foam evolves to the bubble economy gradually.There are three ways of the end mechanism of the real estate bubbles. The most familiar for people is foam burst, but it's not the most common kind. More frequently, When the real estate bubbles is sustained on a certain block inside, it will be absorbedgradually for the improvement of factors, such as macro economy environment, industrial environment and market environment, etc. Thirdly, the real estate bubbles will turn into the foam in another kind of form gradually, for there are difference of utility efficiency between the real estate and other assets. Through the function of market, the assets foam with lower income rate will increase because of the reduction of the assets foam with high-income rate.Just because there is a strong relationship between real estate and the other industries, the problem of measure and precaution about the real estate bubbles has been focused on. In the past research, there has been basic theory frame about how to survey the real estate bubbles. The method of Reducing-Income emphasizes on calculating the basic value of the real estate from micro aspect, and through this process we can draw a conclusion whether the foam exists and how its' degree. The method of Market Revises emphasizes on uneven coefficient of the real estate development hi itself and the comprehensive effect of national economic development.Face the question of precautions of the real estate bubbles. During the past practice, many countries often incline to reflect the development of the real estate through structuring a series of index systems, and provid alert. For example the two sets of Chinese index system, prosperous index system of the national real estate and prosperous index system of the Chinese real estate, which have already been operating for several years. But it cannot meet pe...