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Chaos Science Applied To China Macro-economic Researches And The Prediction Of Its Indicator Array

Posted on:2004-07-09Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:C HuFull Text:PDF
GTID:2156360122492937Subject:Applied Mathematics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
The operating law of China economic indicator array has drawn considerable attention of economists in China since the establishment of Keynes economic school. Chaos science, a major branch of non-linearity, fully shows its efficiency in the research on the complexity and randomness of the economic indicator array, By probing the regularities entailed in economic mathematics, the paper sheds light on the low ?dimension chaotic phenomenon of indicator array in the 20-year-around economic development in china, and find that the annual data is represented by a fractor dimension and Lyapunov indicator a positive value, and that the system is chaotic and Kolmogorov entropy 10-4 in quantity which is of relatively slim value in prediction.With non-linear dynamic model of chaos employ, the author constructs a multi-dimension space plane so as to predict the economic indicator array according to partial similarity principles. This turns out to be effective in prediction on a short-term basis, Finally MATLAB emulation is done on a typical Chaos economic model, and abundance of chaos divergings in China' s economic development are found.
Keywords/Search Tags:Economic indicator, Non-linearity, Chaos dynamics, Noise, Lyapunov indicator
PDF Full Text Request
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