Theoretical And Positive Analysis On The Bullwhip Effect In Supply Chain

One important research problem in supply chain management that has drawn much attention is the information distortion phenomenon known as bullwhip effect, which relates to the theory of management, systems engineering, operational research and mathematic stat. The paper mainly contains two aspects: one is the mechanism and principles; the other is the empirical study. The paper includes six parts:(1) Introduction. First we put forward the bullwhip effect from some basic conception and characteristic of supply chain management. We describe the character of bullwhip effect and its negative action on supply chain management in detail.(2) The formation of bullwhip effect strategic alliance. First of all, we draw the economic analysis of the bullwhip effect based on the contract theory, game theory and Principal-Agent theory. Second, we have a deep research on how the organization structure, information structure and decision mechanism of supply chain affect the bullwhip effect.(3) Risk analysis of the bullwhip effect. From the effect of the organization structure, information structure and decision structure in supply chain, we establish the evaluate index system. Then we put forward to the model of fuzziness comprehensive evaluation and the neural network forecast approach.(4) The mathematic models of the bullwhip effect. We construct the two-stage supply chain model, calculating the bullwhip effect, and discuss the effect of some parameters in supply chain, such as the forecasting swatch, delivery cycle and self correction parameter. Then considering the order tactics of the retailer and the manufacturer, we analyse the value of the information sharing,(5) The counter-measure of the bullwhip effect. Aimed at the causes of the formation of the bullwhip effect, we bring forward several measures to decrease its effect, such as complete contract, information sharing and VMI etc.(6) Empirical study on bullwhip effect. In view of some survey information, we take bullwhip effect for two examples, try to make the research more practical.