Bullwhip Effect And Its Impact Factors In Quantitative Research

Supply Chain Management has become a hotspot for scholars since the 21st century, and Bullwhip Effect is just a crucial obstacle to actualize Supply Chain Management. Thus it attracts more and more attention. A series of problems, such as how to understand and consider Bullwhip Effect of Supply Chain, what's the most important factor for producing Bullwhip Effect, what's the relationship among all influencing factors and how to avoid those factors, have been discussed in this paper. The following are the primary work and achievements of this paper:This paper theoretically introduces Supply Chain, Supply Chain Management, Logistics and Logistics Management, and then defines Bullwhip Effect, gives further analysis on the primary factors for producing Bullwhip Effect and the demand forecasting is especially presented.In order to study the influencing factors for Bullwhip Effect from the point of relevancy degree, this paper first study a two-stage SC model and find that delay time has greatest relevancy degree with Bullwhip Effect (fluctuation), correlation coefficient next, and the number of observation point has the smallest relevancy degree with it.Then on the basis of beer game which is a three-stage SC model and quantifying Bullwhip Effect, we carry through the relevancy degree analysis on the factors for engendering Bullwhip Effect. We find that Delay time has greatest relevancy degree with Bullwhip Effect (fluctuation). Based on the above conclusions, we introduce Systemic Dynamics into the analysis of Bullwhip Effect. First we show the corresponding System Flow Chart, and then instruct a simple evaluation model for storage management system. From digital emulating analysis on diversified indexes, such as the culmination, nadir of evaluation graph and its frequency, time of return, we discuss the importance of delay time for fluctuation influence and the influence of variable controlling parameters with different relationships on Bullwhip Effect.In the end of the paper, we bring forward that the germs for producing Supply Chain Bullwhip Effect lie in Delay Time in supply chain. We also show some alleviate measures against those germs.