Study The Forecast Of Chinese Cotton Production

The cotton is an important cash crop in our country, it has much meaning for spin and weave industry and for to increase income of the farmer.However for long time, because the cotton produces various policies and adjusts measure exsits serious blemish(as if lack to foresee and adjust degree shortage or overdo etc.), end result in the cotton produce the huge a motion, it is seriously influence the village economy healthly develops and spin and weave and with cotton related industry stability develops etc. But the main reasonof policy and adjust blemish is the experience low technique policy establishment At the same time, along with our country socialism market economy system to perfect in further, the macro production adjust and control will more depend on the efficiency of information synthesize process of market and produce.Therefore, with the efficiency long period predicting of production of cotton etc. farm crop for the basal and advanced policy design creates the tool, having become one of the basic premises of high quantity policy establishment and to keep on the steady develop with the cotton industry.Because nature and the complexity social economic factor change, cause the theories abate to estimate production directly, and result in the model to complicates excessively and predict the accuracy lowers.For this, cotton production estimate adopt the yield and area to distinguish processed of method proceeding.In fact, some a opposite consistently economic district plants the cotton scale, therewith the exaltation of village economic level from the cotton plant's occurrence to extend to mature and decadent process. Within a big region, it the actual performance is that cotton plants scale from the decline stage district transfer to that extend stage district, namely from economic prospered region transfer to underdevelopment region.This be concerning production scale and its the theories of districtdistribute-that the life cycle of cotton planted.But with cotton yield level, technique is very much power to push its progresses for long-term trend. However technique progresses track is zigzag, as also influenced by its different action effect in different region and pervasion speed, so its to have different manifestation in different region.But weather etc. factor then decides yearly motion of yield level, and express periodic characteristic obviously.This research based on the cotton sows area distributes and yield undulate regulation above, then applied" the cotton production from economic prosper region transfers to underdevelopment region " model, and period analysis method and self adapt model etc., constructing a set of practical productions estimate model or method on compute.