A Study On The Fluctuation Of China's Cotton Production

Cotton is an important staple primary product, second to the foodstuff, in our planting industry; it is also an important economic crop, which has the longest industry chain. Cotton production concerns to the economic interests of more than one hundred million farmers, 18 million employees in textile industry, therefore, whether the cotton production is stable or not will directly influence the development of the whole agriculture and textile industry together with the income level of the cotton farmer, and further influence the national economy and the people's livelihood.Since a long term ago, especially since the Chinese Economic System Reform and Opening to the world, there has been a fluctuant character in our cotton production. The phenomenon of that demand exceeding supply and supply exceeding demand appears year by year, which presents difficulty in selling and in purchasing the cotton alternately, so, China cotton production has sunk into a cycle fluctuation, whose amplitude is higher than any other crops, such as foodstuff. The fluctuation of output and price, which has been the internal feature of cotton production, not only affects the decision-making of the producers but also influences the welfare of the consumers, and further influences the stable development of the national economy. So, understanding the causing effects of fluctuation in cotton price and production would be very important to solve the problem of China's cotton production, to constitute the relevant policy and institution arrangement.At first, this dissertation has positively studied on the characteristics of China's cotton production. Second, it has further studied on the factors that induce the cotton production fluctuation, such as the supply behavior of producers, market price, variance of the cotton policy and institution arrangement, since PRC was founded, especially since China's reform and opening to the world. Thirdly, this paper has also analyzed the characteristics and the cause of US cotton production fluctuation, studied the character of US cotton production & circulation institution and the sustaining policy of US government, and compared with China cotton production fluctuation. Fourthly, this dissertation empirically studied on the status and the causes of China cotton international trading fluctuation, the effects to the international cotton price. Fifthly, this thesis analyzed the future situation of cotton supply and demand, brought forward a thought of using international cotton resource to meet domestic demand, according to the comparative advantage principle. The main contents of this thesis are as follows:(1) The thesis corrected the method of measuring the fluctuant characteristics and analyzing fluctuation-creating-mechanism by decomposing time trend, using modern econometric unit root test. That is, firstly, we should test whether the fluctuant component is placidity or not, then analyze the characteristics of variable fluctuation and the influencing factors; the thesis adopted co-integration theory and testing technique to eliminate the 'false regression', so as for the model to reflect the real relations between the variables; the thesis utilized Granger Cause Test to determine the dependent variable and explanatory variable before establishing a model. So, this thesis has a breakthrough in analyzing model and studying method on fluctuation creating mechanism together with the influencing factors.(2) This thesis studied on the fluctuation creating mechanism of China's cotton production using the theory and the model of internal propagation & external impulse. Itindicated that the policy and the disaster were the main exterior factors to influence the fluctuation of China's cotton production. In the interior factors, the planting area, which reflects the fanner's planting decision, was the main factor to induce the fluctuant production. The thesis indicated, using co-integration test and PAM, that the main factors, which influenced the cotton planting area, were the previous price and current cost...