The Financial Research Of Uncertainty

In the case of everywhere eyeable uncertainty phenomenon, people wake up to the importance of risk in explaimng individual decision-making more and more. Also people realize that risk becomes one dimensionality of decision-making circumstance. In the process of decision-making, people can understand completely the decision-making of consumed mode, investment and labor only with consideration of uncertainty.After "the wealth of the nations" issued by father of economics Adam Smith in 1776, economics came into being as a independent science. Until the publishing of "economics principle "of Alfred Marshell in 1880, the system info of west economics had been finished. Whether the former or the latter, the same was that they both assumed the market is complete. Their system info and economics conclusion were based on the marketing condition of completed competition. While one of key characters of completed competitive market is full information. The assumption of completed competitive market means a certain economy environment which economy main body is confronted with. In point of view of decision-making, the task of microeconomics research is to analyze the decision-making behavior of consumer and manufacturer in term of confirmed condition i.e. certain decision-making. But in real economy life, completed competitive market couldn't be found, which do not appear neither in developed country nor developing country. Real marketing condition is quite different from completed competitive term. It is just because the supposition of tradition economics and new classical economics is divorced from realism, which result in the deficiency of guided significance of economics theory to real economics decision maaking. In real life, whether consumer or manufacturer, the information they hold is quite imperfect. So they are both faced with much uncertainty, which determine that whatever action they take, it is always difficult to reach the most aim. So we need introduce uncertainty analysis into economics research.In the field of economy investigation before the 20th century, investigative object mainly focused in the input and output of product market. Capital problem was used to simply be come down to a input factor affecting on output by researcher. With the advance rapidly development of financial market from the 20th century and the emergency of the research harvest of Keynes' introducing uncertainty into macroeconomics field, finance became comparatively absolute science domain with gradually separating from economics investigation field. Resumptively speaking, finance is a science studying how to distribute investment resource through financial market and financial agency. According to the difference of attention angel of research problem, the main investigated problem can be apart into two parts, asset pricing and firm financing. The former mainly start from studying and direct investors' decision-making. While the latter mostly start from studying firm financing's decision-making. Because it is only the difference of attention angel, there are inevitable relation between the former and the latter. In the researching course of financial theory and method for nearly one century, the introduction of two concepts brought about great breakthrough of the development of finance. One is the introduction of uncertainty of future incoming in 1920-1930s, which brought the research breakthrough taking risk analysis as representative. In middle of 1940s, John Von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern founded the theory of expected utility according to Daniel Bernoulli's thinking about the party facing risk enlarging farthest expected utility of his wealth. The other is the introduction of information's asymmetry in 1970s, which resulted in a serials of researching fruit taking studying the microstructure of financial market as representative.With the above mentioned directed idea, the text will summarize the most research harvest of uncertainty analysis in financial field. Hereby the stress discussed is the uncertainty economy problem...