Study On Method Of Demand Forecasting And Node Cities Selecting For Regional Logistics

With the deeper reformation of the market economic system and further adjustment of industrial structure in China, as an important part of the circulating realm, modern logistics has been emphasized by the society. More and more people have accepted the elementary conception and basic theory relating to logistics, and the society also abroad identify with the important effect of logistics on economic development. As a new field and a new point of economic growth of China in 21th century, modern logistics will play more and more important role on the developmental strategy of domestic industry in the new century.Regional logistics is a main inscape of regional economy, and it is also a dominance force for the system of regional economy. It exerts an active effect on many aspects, such as increasing the efficiency, economic benefit on the produce field and circulation field, improving the competitive ability on the regional market, altering the layout and producing mode of manufacturers. In the view point of regional economic development, it is a trend of social economy development that the rationalization of logistics in a single corporation tend towards that of regional logistics. Therefore, it is significant to plan and establish a perfect network system of regional logistics.The theory of regional logistics planning relates to many fields. Therefore, the paper emphasizes on the method research of its key technique. Furthermore, in order to improve the rationality and maneuverability of regional logistics planning, it deploys the research by surrounding the methods for demand forecasting and node cities selecting of regional logistics.The forecast of logistics demand is a direct foundation and precondition of establishing the regional logistics planning, and it is also a key factor of determining whether logistics planning can satisfy a developmental request of regional economy. So it has been of great research value. In the paper, it starts with the modulus of logistics task quantity, receives the proportion of logistics task quantity compare to the volume of relevant freight by statistic investigation, then brings forward a new idea for confirming the modulus of logistics task quantity. In order to improve the forecast precision, based on common forecasting methods, the paper uses a new method—weight changeable combination forecasting model, then integrate some examples to carry out the application research, gains a good result.Selecting logistics node is an important part of regional logistics planning, and it is also the premise and base of establishing the regional logistics network. The paper takes a view on the research of macroscopical realm, and divides the logistics node into central cities and node cities so that the problem about function orientation of logistics node is solved successfully. In allusion to the complexity and multiplicity of regional logistics system, it applies gray clustering analysis to comprehensively evaluate the logistics capacity of cities, and enriches the ways of selecting logistics node cities.The dissertation has six chapters. The main content as following:Chapter one, the introduction. Firstly, it discusses the research purpose and the signification about this article, then simply introduces the current status and the trend of development in the logistics. Finally, the content of this article is concluded.Chapter two, characteristic analysis of regional logistics development. After analyzing regional logistics and its main characteristics, the paper discusses the relationship between the regional logistics and regional economy, and the interaction between them is concentrated. In the end, it briefly describes the current status of logistics development in Jilin province .Chapter three, the demand forecasting of regional logistics. In order to solve the puzzles of demand forecasting resulted from absence of establishing a system of statistic indices in the logistics operation, it sets up a model for the volume of freight forecasting, and try to bring fo...