Hierarchy Analysis And Evaluation System Of Market Risk Factors Of Dwelling House

With the research of hierarchy analysis and evaluation system of market risk factors of dwelling house project, the author tries to set up a market risk evaluation and early warning monitor adapting to the practical dwelling house project of the real estate company in domestic and offer some basis for the risk preventing and management for the dwelling house project.The arrangement of the thesis is according to the risk recognition and analysis of the risk management. In the first chapter, the author gives an analysis on the hierarchy of the market risk factors of the dwelling house project of real estate. According to the resources of the market risk, the author analyzes the influences against the dwelling house project of the market factors such as grandness factors (population, economics, law & policy, social culture), real estate industry, market competition and consuming factors. In the second chapter, the author gives an expatiation on the study method, principle and difficulty of the evaluation index system according to the risk evaluation means and sets up a model with the adoption of hierarchy. The content of third chapter is the practical case study. According to the hierarchy structure, the weighted index are determined by two-two comparing method, in the meantime, the influence degree of the index against the project is obtained by subjective score. The back to back Delphi method is introduced to get rid of the influence from the author and increase its impersonality and veracity. Finally, the author offers some suggestion on the risk management of the project according to the evaluation result and market risk rank.During the research process, the author consults the risk analysis materials and market study means. The resources of the real estate materials are from real estate management bureau of Chengdu municipality, some real estate agents, real estate developing companies, real estate professional webs and state statistics web.In the thesis, the author probes into the transformation from qualitative analysis to quantitative analysis of the market risk of dwelling house project and offers theoretical direction of risk management for the real estate company.